Saturday, November 03, 2007

First impressions of NL100

Got a couple short sessions in at 100NL. I came out ahead, but it was swingy, and I could easily have been down. You can see by the graph that I did in fact spend a lot of time in the red -- thanks in large part to my flopped set losing to a gutshot that came in. I drew out myself a couple times for less, though, and felt like I ran OK.



The sample size is still pretty small, but I think that this is the most dramatic level difference in terms of game texture that I've gone through. What strikes me compared to 50NL and lower is that there is more aggression in general, and the aggression is not just wild spew most of the time. This comes from both the fewer number of pots unraised, as well as people playing back at me. Not only did I get 3-bet more over the last 1,000 hands than before, which I somewhat expected, but there was significantly more aggression postflop. People still folded to continuation bets, but the ones that played played for raises more.

Aside from the aggression, it was noticeably harder to find a good table. They were there, and I only play 4 tables, so I never had to stay on a really bad table. But it took longer to get on an acceptable table, and they were noticeably less juicy than the 50NL tables.

The final difference I saw were that the LAGs are better on the whole. I've only been datamining for a few days at 100NL, so my samples are small, but a good number of 35/15 or 35/20 players are winning in my database and just looking at a few random hands, they seem OK. At 50NL, guys with stats like that were likely to spew. And that may be true at 100NL, like I said, I just haven't had a chance to really dig into the players.

It felt to me like I was making some pretty passive plays, calling down, but with the increased aggression, some judicious calling down is fine. And my stats have remained pretty much the same garden variety TAG they have been: 19/15/5.8. In fact, rather than being too much of a station, I might just be too weak/tight. My WtSD is only 15%. So, I'm betting hard postflop and either getting people to fold or folding myself. Could be worse at the beginning of a new level, though.

All things considered, I think I should be able to beat the level. I played pretty tentatively, but hopefully the fact that I actually booked a small win in both sessions will help me get confidence quickly as I adjust. It does reinforce the fact that I could benefit by some coaching, and I'm still holding out hope that comes together quickly. I'm excited that this level has started out on the plus side, too, since I was expecting it to be a bit harder.

3 comments:

RakebackFAQ said...

Pros and cons:
There are loads of pros for you at the moment imho
You seem happy and confident. People think its about cards iam the opposite i think its about state of mind. Your in a winning mood so think you will win at this limit but think that thats your con too.
I dont think your bankroll is good enough for this, you said you had 1900ish? reply to this:
whats your plan?
You just had a huge month and your ready for more. But with 20 BI i dont think its enough.. 3 bad beats would really hurt. You have a job and run ur family on that why the rush? I think you should have another huge month or 2 or 3 while data mining your next level and go there with padding. Moving up aggrasivly is ok but what happens if you hit a shit time. It could seriously set you back like say you lost 500 in 1 session. Ok its 500$ but to you and me its - you just got killed in poker and you will doubth yourself could affect your game. In 50 nl 250 would be a huge loss right? and put you in a bad mood.. I think grind out 1 or 2 more 400+ months will give you true confidence.
Just a thought m8
best of luck

losbert said...

Good luck with the move up to the next level Marc.

Are you exclusively moving up to 100NL or mixing it up with 50NL?

Marc said...

You make a lot of good points, Willie. I think I'm going to stick to my plan, but you make a good case for being more conservative. Whether I grind out some more at 50NL now or move down after dropping a few BI, it would be the same in terms of playing more at 50NL. It's precisely because I don't run my family on any poker income that I don't mind being aggressive. Plus, I'm eager for the challenge.

Chris, I'm not mixing the levels, right now. I've thought about it, though, and I might try that if I feel like making the transition more gradual.