Had a lonnnng day at my customer conference. It's surprisingly tiring work. Most of the time is just spent talking with people, but I don't know, I'm always drained at the end of the day at these conferences. Was riding the train back home with a co-worker after grabbing a beer, and we were laughing at ourselves because we couldn't go a minute without one of us yawning. So, too tired for poker last night, but a hand in a video got me thinking about a somewhat typical situation.
Full stacks, nothing of note except you are up against a TAG. Villain opens 4xBB in MP and you 3-bet AK to 12BB from the button. Villain 4-bets to 36BB. Now what?
I've participated in some discussion threads that go over this situation, and have a default play. I forget all the equity calculations that went into the discussions, so I'm going to try doing them on my own again. For what it's worth, I've seen a number of decent posters weigh in with different opinions of what to do and why. The conclusion I came to is that there is not a clear cut correct answer. There are style and variance preferences that come into play as well.
Back to the problem...first, let's assume a range for the 4-bet: QQ+, AK. So, we either flip, chop, or get crushed. But there is also some dead money in the pot. I want to figure out how much equity we need to be profitable pushing, assuming villain calls. I'm pretty sure that the size of villain's 4-bet doesn't matter since we're playing for stacks. At this point, we are going to put in 88, and if villain calls, the pot will be 200. So, to break even, our equity in the final 200 pot would have to allow us to recoup at least 88. If we solve for equity=x,
200x=88, or x=88/200, or x=.44
well, against his range, we only have 39% equity, so we cannot profitably push if we believe he calls. But Verneer brought up an interesting point the other day about TAGs 4-betting, and it is that you can discount AA somewhat, since a lot of people will just smooth call your 3-bet and trap on the flop. If you discount AA (I'll give one instance of of aces rather than all 3), our equity goes up to 42%. Closer, but not quite enough to be profitable.
So, we probably don't want to push in this situation, but note that with a little bit more dead money in the pot, we might be able to. I've got to run, so I will leave for another time how much extra needs to be in the pot, and also talk through whether we can make a case for calling AK.
I feel like writing
7 years ago
4 comments:
Iam intrested to know how you work this out my personal thoughts are.
AK is very opponent/position dependent i think a good aggrasive player will RR you with 99+ and AJ+ if your raising from late position or 85s. I like to call and try hit the A or K i think people make it pretty clear when they have AA but this could be a leak for me.
Good post look foward to the rest of it.
OOP I will sometimes call a 3-bet and check/shove an A or K flop. I prefer playing this one OOP then IP because we can get value from more hands if they are 3-betting light and following through with a c-bet.
IP I will probably just call then try and get it on the flop even though I will be folding out worse and getting it in bad when we're met with resistance. I think this might be wrong and pretty unimaginative.
I'm glad you reminded me of this situation because it is an interesting spot. It makes me realise I am not thinking enough about this situation and it is pretty transparent to what I have.
I don't think I've ever played for stacks with AK for value pre flop but if you have a crappy image and you think he's making a play maybe his range is wide enough to try and develop some fold equity and take it down rather than seeing a flop. Maybe it's safer without see one.
Still interested on thoughts for this one, nice hand.
Great post Marc. I've been thinking about this a lot recently after making a couple of these laydowns, and also watching a couple of FruityPro's videos where he talks about it.
With full stacks it's definately best to muck it. Even against a loose 4-bet (99+/AKo/AKs) you're still only 41% equity.
Piiiitch it!
Willie: are you talking about good players 3-betting you with that range or 4-betting? I think if you're talking about 4-betting, the range is a bit wide, but I would agree that you could see that with a 3-bet range.
Warren: I want to come back to this topic and go through call vs. fold, and you have some good points. And yeah, if there is history or you have a read, it definitely makes a difference, and I might even shove in some cases, but that's because his range will be wider, so I'll have more equity, and even though only the better hands will call, when he 4-bets the pot is decent size and I don't mind taking it down right there.
Barry: you would not consider calling without a read?
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