Looked over the last few months of hands, and it looks like I don't get as married to my flopped TP hands as I thought. Most of the time I ended up calling down, I had improved by the river, or either the turn or river bet was pretty small. Interestingly, those times I improved and called down, I got show some pretty redic bluffs, but not sure whether those were from otherwise (by stats) solid players.
So, here's the hand that really bugged me and made me feel like a calling station because I knew when he fired that 3rd barrel he most likely had AK. My question to you all is what factors would lead you to make a call here, short of actually seeing him triple barrel bluff as the preflop 3-bettor in the past? If you'd use stats, what's the stat threshold for you between calling and folding (or raising earlier in the hand)? If it's an observed read, what sort of read/note would you be looking for?
Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/355120
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
MP: $492.20
CO: $933.25
Hero (BTN): $400.00
SB: $453.00
BB: $80.00
UTG: $110.00
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with Qd Ad
3 folds, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $34, 1 fold, Hero calls $24
Flop: ($72.00) Ac 8h 8d (2 players)
SB bets $44, Hero calls $44
Turn: ($160.00) 6s (2 players)
SB bets $112, Hero calls $112
River: ($384.00) 4h (2 players)
SB bets $263 all in, Hero calls $210 all in
2 comments:
Ya sick spot with this hand. If he is a decent reg he will never be betting worse on the river and its just such a shitty spot to bluff, espically if 89s, 87s, A8s are in your percieved preflop calling range.
If his 3bet range pf is tighter say 5-6% there are acutally very few hands he can have to be pure bluffing with. Nobody turns like TT into a bluff here.
But on the flip side if his 3bet range is looser 10%ish there may be some 8x or 66 in there.
I guess to call here I would need villain to have a 3bet % over 8-9%, High barrel stats over 50% for turn and river barrels, a bet river stat bigger than 30%, a W$SD less than 50% would be nice too :-) But the player I'm describing is no longer a decent reg but more of a aggro spewtard. Against a decent reg its a fold imo.
Don't beat urself up over this one though Marc. It is a really sick spot and I could very easily see myself incorrectly calling here also. Nice to see you playing 400nl!
Sounds along the same lines of what I was thinking, although I would want to maybe see an even higher 3bet %, at least double digits. I've gotten away from using Bet River to base decisions, but in this case, it would be pretty useful if I were on the fence, I think.
Based on how things are going, not sure I'll be playing 400nl much longer :O. Playing OK and not too concerned with the $$ amounts in the pots, which is good. I'm taking an aggressive BR approach to it, and mixing 200nl and 400nl...probably a 60/40 mix of 200nl and 400nl.
Post a Comment