Still running like death

First, I'm just about through with a detailed review of my 10BI downswing at 200NL.  Like I thought, most of the losses were nothing that I did wrong.  A few times, I got money in great and lost, which I knew.   There were a couple other hands that were pretty marginal (but fine) that I discussed with my coach, and a couple others that were also pushing small edges that I think were fine, but didn't discuss with my coach.  However, part of being properly rolled is the ability to push small edges, even knowing they're high variance.  If that starts getting to me, it's probably one area where I can tone it down. 

An example is getting it in versus a guy who was something like 60/40/2 on an ace-high flop where I turned aces up.  He opened in the CO and I 3-bet with A8 on the button (definitely not something I do normally, but this guy raises almost twice as many hands as I play).  Flop comes Axx with 2 diamonds, he check/calls.  The turn was the 8d, and he bet/called with Ad3d and it held up.  Bye-bye buy-in, reload.

Against more reasonable players, I'm not even in this hand, but that's the way it goes.  As an aside, this also shows where EV analysis lacks...my play was based on a read and playing against his range, but if you look at the EV calc here, most of my money went in bad on this hand.  Anyway, that was not the norm, lately.  It's been going in good and I've been getting unlucky.  I still need to work on eliminating frustration at the tables when that happens, but I'm pretty good at letting it go away from the tables and being happy when I make good decisions, even if they don't happen to work out.  Some day, hopefully, some other players will be the ones to feed the poor players, who will then pass that money along to me.  Lately, I've been the one who funds the party.

So, I dropped to 100NL.  One nice thing between some recent coaching and from playing several thousand hands at 200NL is that I feel more comfortable and confident than ever at 100NL.  Not that it's translated to results.  I ran up 3BI, then dropped 4, again in typical Full Tilt fashion.  I just deleted the details (if you really want to read the gory details, let me know), but the highlights were losing 3 times when I flopped a set....once to a backdoor flush, once to a gutshot that got there, and once when TP runner-runnered quads.  Ugh.

The final stackoff of the day came on the Edu tables on Full Tilt.  I hadn't played those before (I assume CR members at least know what those are).  Geez, they are pretty wild.  I'm not sure I'll be playing those too often for my regular stakes, if yesterday was any indication.  I got stacked by the guy on my direct left who wasted no time 3-betting me...and they were like instant 3-bets, too.  It was either the 3rd or 4th time he did it when I made a stand with AQ and he showed up with AK.  If a pro was making a video, I'm sure he was saying, "See what happens when you use position and pound on a guy.  Eventually, he will get frustrated and play for stacks with an inferior hand.  Ship it!" 

Given the circumstances, I'm not sure how much I hate my play, but I definitely don't like it.  I didn't have that good of a read on him to want to play for stacks with AQ.  I'm sure there was some tilt there, but before I called his 5-bet shove, I was just thinking that he had to be 3-betting me light some of the time, and with him and a couple others all being pretty wild (and the same thing was happening on another Edu table), I just talked myself into him doing this with a lot of pairs, suited aces, bluffs, as well as premium hands.  I was actually getting ready to leave the table before that, but figured I'd play around to my blinds :P.  And then, of course, I couldn't leave right after getting stacked like that, but I never did capitalize on my donk image after that play, so I left a little while later.

BTW, it happened against a guy named Marsh Man, or something like that.  I datamine pretty extensively and had zero hands on the guy prior to sitting.  Anyone know anything about him?  He seemed a bit too LAGgro to be a CR pro or anything, but usually if someone's aggressive like that, I've got at least a few hands on them.

F*ck You Again, Full Tilt Poker!

Edit: Attempting to take some of the ranting out. I called out a lot of beats, and I'm removing those, although I'll still leave some of the ranting in there....this is supposed to be a blog about how I'm doing, after all. I also added some PokerEV graphs and commentary. Plus, a couple guys already left comments (thanks), and since I'm editing, I'll address Willie's.

For the 2nd time, my play at 200NL ends on a Friday night, thanks to Full Tilt Poker and their motherfucking doomswitch. I looked back at some of the big hands, and my decisions were right, except on the river, I was making some frustration calls if they bet smallish...knowing they probably had it, but figuring that one of these times it would be a weird bluff. I did pick off a couple, but made some pretty bad calls, too. Not for huge amounts, but they add up. But overall, I was getting money in pretty well, and overall my play has been pretty good.

The good news out of all this is that I'm 100% convinced I can beat 1/2 pretty well...I don't know how some of these people still have any money, and even against the regulars, I felt like I do fine. Not that I seek them out, but there are too many to avoid altogether. So, I'll just have to grind it back up, and hopefully 3rd time will be the charm.

I hadn't done this in a while, but I loaded last week's hands into PT2 so I can run Poker EV on them. My impression is that I'm getting money in good, and it should be able to tell me at least that much. I mostly stopped using PokerEV graphs, but I do think they can help with confidence for times like this. And it shows that it's actually been a pretty terrible week :(. Down 10 BI at 1/2. This was after running up 5 BI this month there, so the net loss is down 5 BI for the month at 1/2 (and about +5BI at .5/1).

I'm pretty aggressive with my bankroll, and I know that means I'll have to move down sometimes, and after sleeping on it, that doesn't really bother me. I just want to get better, and I think that I am meeting that goal.

Willie brought up a couple good points...he talked about quitting well, and also about posting some hands for discussion. I probably do have a problem quitting, quite honestly. My time for poker gets squeezed into so many other things in my life that if I have a chance to play, I'll probably make "the most" of it. It means I may not be in the right mental state to play my "A" game, but those times where I'm at my best, I'm usually at work or doing stuff with the family. No way around that, and it's just part of what I need to accept. Last night's session was kind of the same. Up late the night before (work, then poker). Played golf in the morning, got to work late, stayed late, dashed out for my daughter's dance recital, etc., etc. But I need to find a way to play through that, or I won't be able to play at all.

The second thing is hand analysis. I've never been one to post a lot of hands on this blog. I don't like the form, and it's difficult to get a discussion going. I probably should post more anyway, just to get thoughts. But I prefer the theory and just in general getting (and giving) updates. I do discuss hands regularly via email with my coach, though, and I'm sure he'll be seeing quite a few from last night...it's been good to make sure that my decisions are reasonable when I'm getting the money in.

My thoughts on that 3-bet hand

Thanks guys for the comments in the last post.  Brian had the best advice of all, which is to move tables against a good aggressive player who has position on you.  The hand I posted was an actual hand, and while the guy to my left was a PITA, the two guys to my right were worth it.  Anyway, I think as we all move up, we are going to face increasing aggression from the whole table, including the guys on our left of course.  And if we have some good targets to our right, we'll start raising lighter and the guys to our left will start 3-betting lighter...and we'll want to stay, and to play as well as we can against them.  Plus some of them won't be good at playing reraised pots, even if they're the ones reraising.

If I'm in the CO and the BTN is 3-betting 7%+ of his hands, that means he's likely 3-betting quite wide on the button, and I think AQ is too much hand to just give up against those guys, assuming 100bb stacks (and for sake of argument, yeah 3.5bb raise, and the guy 3-bets to 12bb).  If he's position-aware and 3-betting 7% of all his hands, let's just say he's 3-betting 10% of his hands on the button.  So, if he's doing this with like 99+, ATo+, A9s+, KJ+, we actually have more than 50% pot equity with AQ.

The question is how much to play back against them.  You guys my disagree that we should play back at them, and that's fine, but from a hypothetical standpoint, let's say that we are compelled to at least call the 3-bet.  Between calling and raising, I like calling.  Raising does force him to fold some hands at the bottom end of his pocket pair range that we would prefer he actually fold, given we're flipping and there will be decent dead money in the pot, but it counts on him folding out 99-JJ, which might be too hopeful.  But more than that, we're screwed against his non-folding range (whether we shove or not for our 4-bet).

If we call, what we have going for us is our equity against his range.  What we have going against us is that we are only going to hit our hand 33% of the time, and of that, a decent chunk of the time we will make a 2nd best hand, although not always.  The times we don't, if we c/f, then we will definitely be losing money on the deal and you guys are right we should just toss the hand after he 3-bets us.

So, that leaves us having to do something besides fit-or-fold (again, supposing we *must* at least call his 3-bet).  In other words, we need to bluff some of the time (but not all the time), in order to make up some ground.  One of the key advantages we get by 3-betting (in position or out) is fold equity, so we can fire when we miss. Well, if you know that your opponent is 3-betting light, then you have some fold equity as well.  You still don't have position, but if you come out firing after calling a 3-bet -- presuming you don't normally call 3-bets, especially OOP -- you are going to make your opponent uncomfortable to say the least.

On to the specific hand.  To recap, I raised 3.5, he 3-bet to 12, I called.  Let's say the blinds pay the rake.  There's 24 in the pot and 89 behind in each stack (he had 101bb and I covered).  I have AsQx and the flop is JsTs3x.  First of all, I think since we didn't hit a pair, there is nothing really wrong with check/folding, in a vacuum.  However, if we have to bluff sometimes, then this board is a good candidate for it, but we need to bluff big if we're going to do it.  I checked for a couple reasons.  First, he could possibly check behind and let me draw to one of my 3 outs to the nuts.  Second, if he bets, I can CRAI, and as long as my image isn't that of a total LAGtard (yet!!!), I think a lot of hands ahead of me will fold, and if they don't I do have at least a few outs.

The fact that the ten, jack, and ace of spades are all accounted for makes it a lot less likely that he's got a flush draw.  If he's any good, he's going to see my play and figure slowplayed AA, 2-pair+, good to great draw, or B.S.  Now he may have a really strong hand himself, or maybe just feel pot-committed and look me up.  In the hand, he bet 19bb and folded to my shove, so maybe I had the best hand all along and turned it into a bluff.  I'm far from convinced I made the clearly correct play, and it might not even be close (i.e., folding preflop might be the right thing to do).  But I don't think that approaching it a more aggressive way like I outlined is so -EV that we should always avoid it, either, from both a learning and a table image standpoint.

FWIW, I usually just take Brian's advice and change tables when a good aggro player is behind me.  This time, though, the aggressive player -- who seemed pretty solid actually, if not outstanding -- didn't 3-bet me again, even though I raised a lot of hands against the looser players to my right.  After a few orbits, he left.

Getting 3-Bet

Stacks are 101BB effective.  I open AQ from the cutoff and an aggressive button 3-bets me. 

He has not been on the table all that long, and we have not tangled directly.  I have been pretty active, but nothing outrageous (like playing 26/21, say).  Neither of us has shown anything down.  Villain is a regular and likely has a light 3-betting range.  He's on the aggro side, but not over the top.  He's 3-bet me once and I folded, and he's also folded to at least one prior raise of mine...in other words, nothing out of the ordinary is going on here.

OK, so I think I have too much hand to fold.  What do you think...a 4-bet or a call?  Or do I really need to fold.  What is your general plan if you call?  What about if you raise?

Let's put a specific flop out there:  JT3 with two spades, and I have the Ace of spades.

If you 4-bet this (and he called preflop), what's your plan now?

If you called his 3-bet, what's your plan now?

Still here :)

Things have been pretty busy...couple projects in go-mode at work plus end of school year.  Jennifer is room mom for both kids' classes plus is president of the PTA and things are extra busy due to another school closing and all the kids coming to our school...so I'm picking up as much of the slack as I can on the home front.

Actually, with all of the work she's doing at night, it gives me a little more time to play poker, but it's all in short sessions, as she always seems to get jammed up on some computer project and I try to help her get through it quickly.  So, I guess it all kind of balances out.

I had a few weeks where everything seemed to align...was making good plays based on good reads and getting good cards.  Maybe because I'm not able to fully concentrate or am a bit tired, my play has definitely not felt as sharp this month.  I've made some disappointing decisions that have cost a lot, and also have happened to tangle with a couple decent players (at least by reputation) on otherwise great tables.  All the problems are not totally in vain.  I'm trying to work more aggression into my postflop game, but I'm still getting used to it, and I don't realize my errors until later....but I am getting more comfortable upping the aggression somewhat, and I'm finding that people are paying off my bigger hands...although I wouldn't say it's due to any image I've established necessarily, just in general I'm realizing how much people like to call :).

Actually, it's hurt me in a lot of small pots over the last few sessions..my c-bets are definitely not getting much respect these days.  At least 3 times in a small number of hands, people have made pretty bad check/calls with crappy overcards on bad boards for them, and then got there.  But the pots have been small, thanks to not being such a double-barreling spew monkey these days.

I think where I am spewing is preflop and on the river.  Preflop by just being a bit too 3-bet happy, and also responding to perceived light 3-bets.  I don't think I play that well in re-raised pots...not terrible, but not good enough.  Sometimes to compensate, I force the issue preflop with marginal 4-bets and probably bluffing too often, as for a while, I was 4-bet bluffing once or twice a session, and a session for me is only a few hundred hands.  On the other hand, I think that reading and watching videos can only take you so far in terms of playing in reraised pots...a lot of it you have to learn by trying it yourself...or at least I do.  I tried actually dropping down a couple levels to make some light calls and play hands out...but I didn't spend much time on that.  I may do it some more, but the problem is that with so little time to actually play, I want to play at my regular game.  So, we'll see how that goes.

I'm still doing OK, it's just that things have slipped a bit focus/clarity-wise, and as I said, some of that is a little by design.  Accept some marginal spots in order to improve.

May Flowers

I may have to try playing less...seems like the months I'm not able to get in too many hands, my results are better! In April, I had the largest DS so far...20+ BI to the bad, and May started off with a continuation of that. Things turned around, though, and it ended up being a nice month :)





My stats look different than usual, but the sample size is small enough that I don't know whether it's from playing a ton differently or running well. I think some of both, as I have been working on a few different things. Anyway, my VPIP and PFR both increased a couple points. 21/17 is by no means LAG, but for a while I've been running steady at 18/15 or so. I've been looking to play some more in late position, and I think that accounts for the bulk of the increase, including a higher-than-previous attempt to steal. Bottom line, though, I see nothing to really quibble about in my stats, other than over the long haul, my turn and river AF could bump up a little.



I'm OK with these numbers. If I were going to pick some things, I would say to loosen up a tad in CO and tighten up a tad in the SB. At least as far as the SB goes, I'm completing (I think only) when there are either already a couple limpers and I have good speculative hand (connectors, one-gappers, suited two-gappers, pairs) and a passive BB behind me. I've purposely tried to widen my button range at the right tables, and I should now start looking to do somewhat the same in CO. But in all cases, I'm not forcing things.

For June, I'll continue to focus on more of the same things (seems to be a good formula). I'm also continuing to work with Jared, and hopefully before too long, I'll bounce off him whether he thinks I'm in good enough shape to start taking some 200NL shots again.