Thursday, May 15, 2008

A 4-bet pot out of position

Villain is 18/16/3.5, 3-bets 7% of the time and cold calls 0.9%. Had notes on him from a prior session that he 3-bet me relentlessly in position, and this session, he's already done it a couple times and I'd folded (and he'd also folded to my raises a few times).

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $104.00
BB: $103.00
UTG: $136.00
MP: $139.70
Hero (CO): $192.90
BTN: $127.05

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with Jc Ac
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero raises to $32, BTN calls $20

Flop: ($65.50) 2c Tc 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $35, Hero raises to $160.90 all in

Preflop, my plan was to fold to a shove. His 3-betting range is really wide, but I'm assuming I'm pretty far behind his shoving range. I've been trying to incorporate some bluff 4-bets, and so my 4-bet size has gotten smaller if I don't shove, but I don't vary my bet sizes between bluffs and value against regs.
I was a little surprised by his call (thought he would either fold or shove). I guess he should have a big hand here, although he's a loser over 8000 hands, so it is possible he's not that good and may be calling with worse hands. Or, being so aggressive, is just looking to take it away from me on the flop. But let's give him TT+ as a range and assume we're playing for stacks. If that's the case, I've got enough pot equity (I need about 35% and I've got about 43%). So, I shouldn't mind playing for stacks if it comes to that.
There are a couple lines to take here: bet/call or CRAI. His flop aggression factor is like 6. Let's look at some of his possible hands:

  • Set, 2-pair, or premium pair that smooth called preflop: either line stacks are going in, as I assume he bets these. I guess he might check back a set (I might do that in his shoes), but then I get a free card to hit my draw. And also, he strikes me as overaggro, so I think he's probably betting. C-bet or CRAI doesn't make much difference.
  • QQ, JJ, Tx, 9x: I think I actually have more fold equity (not that there's a ton) taking the CRAI line. Yeah, he's going to be tied to the pot, but the CRAI looks so strongly like he's crushed, that he might fold to it, plus I get an extra bet. On the other hand, he might have called QQ, maybe JJ, looking to shove if I bet a non-ace, non-king flop. I don't think it makes a ton of difference, but in general putting in the shove gives more FE than putting in a bet, so I think CRAI is the play here. Again, he's really aggressive on the flop, so I don't think he'll check behind, but again, if he does, it gives me a chance to outdraw him.
  • Lower pocket pairs: I think betting is a little better here. If he made the call with a low pocket pair, he's probably looking to hit his set or fold...it will be pretty tough for him to call a c-bet. Given this is a 4-bet pot, this is a small part of his range.
  • Draws: Again, he shouldn't be showing up with draws here in a 4-bet pot, but people are surprising. I like CRAI for draws, as he gets tied to the pot, but I'm actually ahead if he's on a draw.
  • Air: Not a huge part of his range, but there is a nonzero chance he's making a play, given I've let him push me around by folding to his 3-bets so far over a couple sessions. If he has air, he's most likely bet/folding if I check, so I like CRAI.
So, overall, I'm OK with the CRAI line I took, mostly because he is really aggressive and will bet for me, so overall I get more FE taking my strong line, and I've got pot equity to back me up in case he calls. But I think it's kind of close. I'm really more concerned about the analysis. To be honest, at game time I was giving more weight to draws and air than I do now looking back on it. I believe in game time, I was approaching this more as a 3-bet pot than a 4-bet pot, so the scales tipped a little more to CRAI than they do now.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

You are a little deeper than normal here. I don't mind the 4-bet, because playing it OOP, even knowing he 3bets light is going to be difficult. I also like how well planned your hand was. Personally, since he is a little deep, I like the CRAI on the flop, because I do think you might have some form of fold equity. If it was just 100 BB stacks, you have no fold equity. You don't have much here, but you have some. Besides, if you bet the flop and he just calls, I hate to see a brick turn. I do like the line taken here in this hand. When you get enough responses, please post the results, curiosity killed the btimm.

Bazclef said...

I'd prefer to have 4-bet him the 1st or 2nd times he 3bet me, as this time he knows you know he's 3betting light (What?!). So it's best to get the first 4bet in early. This spot is ok though, however you don't bet enough, you're gonna get called almost 100% as he has position. His 4bet calling range in this spot (with position, and with his knowledge on you) is a LOT lighter than you give him. OOP you need to make it more here, $36 minimum.

With him trying to run you over, and having a 6 aggro factor the CRAI here is delicious in my opinion. However there are a couple of problems, if he checks behind your hand is going to lose value on the turn if you miss and you're going to get very little action on the turn if you hit. Also in this spot we should be leading for 2/3 pot with our whole range practically 100% of the time (provided the villain folds postflop, his fold to cbet should be over 50). So not leading could potentially give villain information that you have a strong hand and want to get it in.

If you're like 80%+ sure that he'll bet the flop I'd go for the CRAI, otherwise I'd lead for $40 (and obv call a shove).

Nice hand.