Played some on Saturday and Sunday nights, both nights on the early side. I usually play after midnight (really 1:00) EST because I live in California and don't play until the family is asleep. I got on earlier than usual, and all I can say is that I wish I could play more during prime time :P. That's not to say I won this weekend (I didn't), but the games looked really good compared to my usual times.
I had one hand that cost me a profit for the weekend. At the time, I wasn't that mad at myself, but reviewing it later, I thought that I played it pretty poorly and incorrectly just chalked it up to a cooler. At least it didn't tilt me too badly.
I was on a great table, but unfortunately not catching many cards until I picked up KK in the SB with 100 BB effective stacks. A very loose (but running like a god) MP limps, a 32/22 assumed regular on the button over-limps, and I bump it to $6. The limpers call.
Flop comes Q96 rainbow. MP has a fold-to-cbet percent of like 7, and then pounces on weakness on the turn and river. So, I figure I can make a PSB on the flop, even though it's pretty dry. I think that's OK. Of course, MP folds. The lagtard button pushes, giving me (a little) worse than 2:1 odds to call.
I thought at first that he was bluffing a ton here, even such a large overshove. But I hadn't seen him yet get it in, and one of the reasons I liked playing with him is that I could 3-bet on him quite profitably when he opened from MP or CO. The other thing is that in spite of 3-betting him somewhat light, I have been playing really nitty in general these days, like 17/14 seems to be my typical session...and I'm not actually squeezing or stealing a ton either. (Those are separate issues which I really need to look at, but that's for another post.)
So with all that said, what is he shoving? Set of queens is out, as is likely any set, since I think he's probably isolating the limper with any PP. In fact, it's hard to put him on much since he would isolate light. A lot of his semi-bluffing hands are out because I've got 2 kings, but maybe JT. I don't *think* he'd shove with his likely pair hands (KQ and AQ are probably getting raised pre), and probably not with 9 or 6. The thing is, he was somewhat unknown, doesn't show down a lot, does fold plenty on early streets, and I'm likely to be WA/WB (open-ender not withstanding).
The range that I can put him on is really pretty narrow for this play, given what I've seen of him so far. Add to that, I should have lots of better spots later with my position on him. Add to that, how many times have you seen a regular -- even a bad one -- overshove as a bluff. I mean it happens I'm sure, but I don't think that's what 100NL regulars are doing too much.
So, I think this was a bad call. I will say that you could make a case for it, but I don't think you can make a great one. Turns out he had Q6o and it held. Hopefully that's besides the point. In other words, hopefully the fact that I lost the hand doesn't change the analysis.
When we talk about running bad and getting coolered, how many times are our coolers really just poorly played hands that we didn't realize? Had I not gone back over this hand and really looked at it closely, I would have characterized the session as down a little over a BI with some coolers (actually KK was a huge loser for me this weekend: once against AA for 65bb, once against AK for a stack where the ace hit, and once when I had AA and got it in, but the other guy's KK hit).
And that's just for this one hand, that I happened to catch. I'm sure there are a number of hands out there where I shrug it off, and in reality there are problems. That stuff aside, I'm feeling pretty comfortable with my game, which is one good thing about a 17/14 style. I'm giving up a ton of opportunity, but I'm not finding myself in a whole ton of awkward spots, at least past the flop. I'll have to fix that right up!
I feel like writing
7 years ago
2 comments:
"When we talk about running bad and getting coolered, how many times are our coolers really just poorly played hands that we didn't realize?"
I think it happens pretty damn often. It's very easy to convince yourself things aren't your fault.
You have to call this raise 100% of the time if you are getting 2:1 odds. You have 5 outs on the turn and 8 on the river (assuming the turn is any card that does not pair the board). Mathematically, that gives you 6.5 outs twice. This is the same thing as 5 outs once and then 8 outs once, you can average them and say you have that many outs twice.
Anyways, I don't have Poker Stove here at work, but just KK vs. Q6 alone, you have 26% equity. Less than the 36% needed sure (it is roughly 1.8:1 here pot odds), but you can't narrow his range down to just two pair hands. It is inded very possible that he would do this with AQ. You have 90% equity against that hand.
Here is the thing, if you say his range is ONLY Q9, Q6, 96, J10, and AQ and never anything else, you have according to my very rough Excel calculations, 49% equity against that range. I would say that is most likely accurate to within 4 or 5 percent.
The key here is that if you are absolutely certain that he has no pps, then his range of AQ, J10, Q9, Q6, and 96 is very appropraite. Counting the dead money, you HAVE to call. It is a +EV move to make if this is his range. Basically what it comes down to is whether J10 is in his range. If it is, easy call. If not, easy fold. In this situation, I personally do shove J10, due to fold equity. Think about it, you damn near folded KK! However, for the record, I isolate with J10, so I would not be in this spot in the first place.
I do think that is the key though, and the math backs it up. If he shoves J10, you have to call.
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