Full stacks at $1/$2. A TAG with solid stats (let's say 24/19/3.5, if you want) raises to $7 UTG. You only have a stats read on him. You flat with 88 from the BTN, and the blinds fold. He bets $11 - $13 into $17. Does your flop play (and tentative plan for the hand) change for the following flops? And what is the play/plan?
Flop 1: K93 rainbow.
Flop 2: K73 rainbow.
Bonus question: Same basic preflop scenario, except we've opened from UTG with 88, and the TAG flat-called from the BTN. What's your plan for the two different flops?
We probably each have a default way we play these situations, which might make for an interesting discussion. I'm more interested in whether you all change your plan based on that subtle difference in board texture.
5 comments:
Good discusson post Marc. I'll be interested to hear what others think about these spots.
Before I do anything on the flop I'm gonna check his cbet turn stats, if its low I may call and then just hope to showdown the hand. If its high I'm just gonna fold right now. The main thing to consider here is even if he is cbetting air here alot of the time he has decent equity with overcards anyway considering he will almost always get to see turn and river. And also if he does have undercards or air it is hard for us not to play our hand face up so we may get bluffed off it on the river
I am more likely to peel on the K7x flop obv because our hand is stronger relative to the board, but also no turn cards give him straight draws on this board, but on the K9x board any T,J,Q, or A may give him gut shots or openenders which will lead him to barrel these cards more often.
It's a funny spot because we are very explotiable here vs the villain imo. Clearly folding too much when he cbets this flop so frequently isn't good, but calling cbets and not getting to showdown often enough when were ahead and getting valuetowned when he has us beat is a more expensive leak imo.
I think to deal with this spot and his owning us with cbetting so often I adjust by paying close attention to how he responds to flop raises of his cbets or if he check folds alot on the turn and start playing back at him. Also 88 wouldn't be in the range of hands I play back at him with. Im looking for hands with some equity (gutshots, A high) and less showdown value..
And to answer you question - I think the villains tendencies are more important that the subtle difference in board texture here.
As for Hero being UTG and oop on the flop against a decent tag I'm still going to cbet the flop, especially the K7x flop. If he is decent and we check flop, or check call flop and check turn, check river I don't think we ever get to showdown when we are ahead.. espeically if is agg factor is 3.5. There is also a bit of value to be had from 7x hands. The K9x flop I may cbet as a pure bluff if I think cbetting anytwo is profitiable against this villain in this spot, otherwise I'm check folding.
This hand is sort of similar. Viallan is a tricky TAG 23/18/2.7 with a 58% cbet turn. You play it any different?
PokerStars Game #33587439674: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00 USD) - 2009/10/03 12:46:58 ET
Table 'Mannucci II' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: aellbert ($105.50 in chips)
Seat 2: RiverRock55 ($113.35 in chips)
Seat 3: kAy86 ($100 in chips)
Seat 4: Kevin_2384 ($201.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Glover12 ($173.20 in chips)
Seat 6: kinheim ($129.35 in chips)
aellbert: posts small blind $0.50
RiverRock55: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RiverRock55 [9s 9h]
kAy86: folds
Kevin_2384: raises $2 to $3
Glover12: folds
kinheim: folds
aellbert: folds
RiverRock55: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [7d 3d 2d]
RiverRock55: checks
Kevin_2384: bets $5
RiverRock55: calls $5
*** TURN *** [7d 3d 2d] [Jc]
RiverRock55: checks
Kevin_2384: bets $12
RiverRock55: calls $12
*** RIVER *** [7d 3d 2d Jc] [Kh]
RiverRock55: checks
Kevin_2384: bets $24
RiverRock55: folds
"Before I do anything on the flop I'm gonna check his cbet turn stats..."
Absolutely. I mean, RR55 just hit it on the head imo. I will say that given villain's turn tendencies, this is a board I float a TON with air, as he is cbetting almost 100% of the time and if he just shuts down, which many regs will do, then I opt to go ahead and bet the turn and I take it down an awful lot of the time.
As for RR's HH, I'd be so tempted to call the river. It is such a great card for him to bet, as your hand is so face up. You never have a king, but he can have a king. You never even have a jack, but he can have a thinly value bet jack. These reasons make me want to call the river so badly, especially given his turn tendencies, but man, I get a little frustrated in these spots when I call and lose. I think I am more likely to call if he is CO or BTN though. I probably let it go given he opened in the hijack.
Thanks Brain. Good idea about condisering the position he opned from affecting the amount of K and J in his range. This would actually be an interesting spot to disect mathematically - maybe if Im bored later..
The thing I find ironic about this hand is in my orig response I say "calling cbets and not getting to SD enough when we are ahead and getting valuetowned when he has us beat is a more expensive leak"
Should I have listend to my own and advice and folded the turn here? Like a small part of his range has us beat right now, and a big chunk probably has 12 outs or so, and the times he wiffs there are alot of cards he can bluff on the river anyway.
Good discussion, and I'm not sure yet where my thinking is going with it. I like the point about checking his turn c-bet. If he c-bets turn a lot, I think it might make me more likely to peel the flop, not less, though. We're more likely to be ahead, and we can't give him credit for triple barreling until we've seen it. If we do think he will bet us off our SD-value hands, we obviously get less SD value, but our implied odds to set mine increase....not sure whether they set each other off in terms of whether to call preflop in the first place.
As for the hand example, it's a tough spot, obv. I really don't like a c/c here on the turn, if he's a good player (as opposed to just being tricky and cute). I'm trying to decide if I like making a blocking sort of bet on the turn, and think I might if I didn't think that villain was particularly good. If I did think he was good, I would probably just c/f and chalk it up to being OOP.
I don't think it conflicts with your advice about getting to SD, because this board puts you in a pretty bad spot...OOP, possibly way behind, not getting value if ahead, etc.
Post a Comment