Thursday, January 08, 2009

Thoughts on yesterday's hand

Thanks for the comments, glad I posted that hand because I had to get pointed towards thinking better about it, as unfortunately I didn't recognize myself that it was a pretty bad play.  Here's where I think my thinking just was bad...I didn't give enough thought to what the preflop raiser/flop c-bettor's range was.  Based on his stats, he's not going to be way out of line.  HU and he might bet a good part of his preflop range on that board.  But, with 3 people to act after him, two of whom will have position on future streets, he is not going to be c-betting light.  I don't really gain much from raising, and stand to lose a ton.  This doesn't even take into account what the guys behind *me* will do.  The best that I can hope for after my raise is that the original raiser decides to see what happens on the turn, but more than likely I'm in a bad spot if he can call my raise.

As to whether or not to fold when he reraises me, I still think it's a fold.  I mean, you guys are right that I should not raise/fold, but I think the raise itself was pretty bad, now that I'm looking back on it.  The only time I should be raising is when I've got a solid read that he's wild enough to go ahead and call it off (but even then I don't think a raise is the best play).  I think he's shoving here fairly tight:  sets, overpairs, broadway hearts.  If that's right, I've only got 22% equity.  If I add in some straight draws (that don't come with flush draws), I can approach 30%, but I think that may be a little optimistic.

1 comment:

goooooood girl said...

your blog is so good......