The I really don't like having to follow links to hand conversion sites from blog and forum posts...mostly I'm just lazy...but if I try to make comments, I've got 3 separate tabs open: the original post; the hand history (pokerhand, weaktight); and my comments. If I could eliminate one, that would be great, and the easiest one to eliminate is the hand history. So, I much prefer inline hand histories, again on forums or on blogs. But they take up a lot of room. /rant
Anyway, check this replayer out. I don't think you can embed the CR replayer or anything like that. Let me know if you have any problems with it....not that I post a lot of hands, but maybe it will catch on in general. I kind of like it. Pause before each of my actions, and see what you think.
For what it's worth, I think that this hand shows a lot about why I don't win more. There's some good, even creative thinking, but a significant mistake on the later streets that kind of torpedoes my previous good efforts. As for context...
CO recently sat down, but I have a few hundred hands on him, and a little recent history where I managed to stack off AK vs. his AA preflop, but it was pretty standard and a day or two ago, so I'm not sure it comes into play. He is 17/15, steals 42%, folds to 3-bet 85%.
BB is relatively unknown, but seemingly fishy. 32/10 over 88 hands. He folds his BB to steals 100 of the time, but that's got to be a really small sample size.
Here's the Permalink, just in case.
My thinking in the hand is that given his propensity to get way out of line (yeah, only a few hundred hands) and me with a hand I'd like to play on the button, I'd rather raise here than just call. Against someone who doesn't seem to get out of line in steal situations as much, I could see calling. I think even though a 3-bet here is OK, a call here might be good too, since the blinds are deep, and I might be able to trigger a cold-call-fest with a good speculative hand on the button. But, I don't trust them to come along...although the BB is loose in general, he seems tighter out of the blinds. Anyway, lately, given a choice between a safe, aggressive, and really aggressive line, I'm going with the last one.
The flop seems like a good bet to me. I'm worried about the BB (as I am anytime someone calls a 3-bet almost cold, at least until I see what they're doing it with), but he's loose/passive enough that he could be doing this with big cards, maybe suited, as well as all his pairs. CO has shown me that he reraises his biggest hands, so most likely he has a pocket pair and possibly some big suited cards as well. I would have put him on a much more narrow range had it been HU, but after BB called, I think CO's range opened somewhat because he plays deepish against BB. He's also got decent relative position because he'll be able to see what I do on the flop, and how BB responds. Now, I'm not saying he's good enough to realize all that, I'm just saying that there's a decent rationale to widen his range a bit. Anyway, the pot is pretty big already, and at least one of these guys could have overcards that I don't want to see come. If they have overpairs or sets, I still have flush equity (and backdoor straight outs), and also 2-pair/trips outs against overpairs.
The turn is where I really think I blew it. This guy is a tight, pretty straightforward player who does not seem to be the type that is going to put a move on me. It is possible that he got married to his hand and made a loose call on the flop, but what I didn't realize at game time was just how terrible a card that Jack was. Let's say he was on a club draw when he called the flop. A jack is in a fair amount of that club draw range, so with such a small amount behind, he's not letting go of TP+flush draw, IMO. He *may* call another bet with a non-jack club draw. That would be great...but also since I've got two clubs myself, I don't need to be super worried about a better flush draw catching me. But anyway, let's say he calls again with it, that would be a good result. Finally, if he has a pocket pair...he could have made a set on the flop, in which case he's just letting me hang myself. If he doesn't have a set, then I think his PP's are pretty much TT and JJ, and obviously he's not folding JJ.
Now, if I check behind that turn and the river blanks....if he bets, it should put me AI. I can probably find a fold, if I have a read that he's not particularly likely to run a big bluff. He may have a better hand and put me solely on missed clubs, and check again trying to induce me (which I would not do, since it's clear no worse hands will call and not many better ones will fold). Even if I talk myself into a huge hero call if bets on the end, my chances of winning this hand are a ton better if he's the one betting than calling. Again, given stats and what that means for his range.
Edit: Graham and Willie, I responded to your comments from my last post....thanks.
8 comments:
Essay Below
Well here goes! Ill try and answer in a logical way if possible… but I do have a tendency to waffle sometimes. The cutoff is playing 17 / 15 and raises…see what I mean about waffling
We are all aware he is playing 17 /15 and raises !!! anyway ill try to put him on a range… 17 / 15 seems nitty to me so from the cutoff im going to put him on any pair and then any suited broadways ( im not to sure if that is too nitty but that’s my opinion anyway )
He gets 3 bet from the button ( waffling again !!) and calls , im not sure of the best way of establishing his calling range but this is what ill say . Hes going to 4 bet maybe QQ+ and AK
I think he may fold from 9s downward BUT as the BB has cold called the 3 bet he may see this as an opportunity to get set value and that may increase his pp calling range to maybe 55+
And maybe even KQs
The BB on the other hand has cold called the 3 bet and is playing 38 / 10 so this could mean anything but ill narrow the range to any small pp and perhaps high suited broadways pretty much the same as the CO. I think we can make a comparison with the loose BB cold calling range and the Nits CO range, I don’t think that’s unfair
The flop…mmmmm Ok we have the flush draw, but we also had 2 callers, neither raised showing us they had high card or high pair strength, so does that mean they have lowish cards or perhaps high suited connectors with which they only felt they could call with
If they have the high suited then we could be in trouble with a higher flush , if they have low pps then they could have hit the set . Were out of position so what should we do , If I had spent this much time thinking on this hand I would check call , maybe check fold depending on the size of the bet …if any
I think that if there is another flush draw out there they may bet , the BB may try and bluff if he has a draw but he will either get re raised by the CO or called and this gives us the information we need to fold . If the BB checks and the cutoff bets I think we can safely fold
If he checks we get a free card and then perhaps we can lead the turn if we hit or miss
Most certainly if we lead the turn we will get raised or the CO may slow play , but we have important information I feel .
How does that sound ? Me personally… I would have folded to his raise, I don’t think ^&s is a hand to be 3 betting from the button maybe the blinds, but with a nitty player raising im not sure I would have played this one
Love the replayer I'm going to sign up and start using it.
As for the hand, I pretty much hate it on all streets.
Suited connectors just aren't that strong and if you're going to play them a lot of your value is going to come from stealing pots with them so the preflop raise makes sense. On the other hand, if you get called he's got you beat and he probably isn't folding any decent piece of the board. Stealing is going to be hard because it's cutoff and button.
Moreover, the three bet means that a decent sized flop bet pretty much commits you. What happens when he pushes over your c-bet? You're calling 60 to win 150 with a pair and a draw. You're going to know that you either have the best hand because he's on a draw or a decent draw if he has a hand. There's always a chance you're completely screwed and very very little chance you're in great shape.
Next thing you know you have your whole stack in with a pair of sixes.
And that's why you don't three bet preflop. If you wait until the flop to do your stealing then villain is more likely to fold an AQ, AJ, 88 or 77.
If you just call preflop then the villain c-bets about 8 into a pot of about 10.5 then you raise to 25 or so you can get away from it easier. The way you played it you've got $40 in by the time you see the turn card. If you try to steal on the flop you're only putting in about 29.
I kinda disagree with the previous comments, with the exception of the ranges given.
First of all if you check that flop after the 3-bet (which I like against this type of player for sure), it is to check-raise him all in imo.
I like 3-betting him because he is generally a tag player and 3-betting him forces him to play OOP. Now if you know the blinds are tough players and will squeeze often if you flat him on the button I like a 3-bet that much more. If they are loose fish then a call is ok to because you can steal the pot post-flop but remember it's harder to steal from 2 or 3 guys than HU.
Anyway, the hand is played fine imo, but a check on the turn is necessary. What range are you assigning him on the flop, he's not reverse floating you with a weak hand in 3-bet pot like you said. So he is either slow playing a set or has an over pair like TT or JJ. I think he shoves a higher flush draw on the flop most of the time.
I'm shoving any A or K on the turn most likely but checking back on the J as its not nearly as good a card to semi bluff the turn w/. Like you said you can find a fold on the river you blank and miss out. Either way the turn is pretty marginal as there is basically 93 in the pot and you have 60 left.
So given the range I assigned him (basically 44, 99-JJ) you have...about 25 percent equity in the hand.
EV = (.25 X $212.50(TOTAL POT IF YOU SHOVE AND GET CALLED)) - 60(AMOUNT YOU LOSE WHEN CALLED AND DON'T IMPROVE) = -$6.88
FE = 100 X (-6.88/(212.50-6.88)) = 3.35% of the time
So if he folds just 3 percent of the time here you break even...I think he folds TT here if he made a poor call with it on the flop imo. Like I said pretty marginal.
Another line you might wanna try on this flop, but you have to balance it doing this with overpairs and monsters as well, is check-raising the flop all in. This gets villain to fold out hands like TT or JJ and at least puts pressure on them. I think this is the best way of getting the money in on this flop. If they all check back well then even better, you get a free turn card, but be careful if you make ur flush on the turn, bet and are raised...then its kinda sticky :)
Cool replayer iam going to use it too.
Personally i like to call this PF IP small pot for a small hand but the way you 3bet is fine if you have a pretty good idea he will fold. Again on the flop I think you played fine I feel high cards FD will raise here and try to get AI if he likes money, When he calls tho you start to think pair. And that makes sense because the BB called to.
So the turn i think you can definitly check behind and try hit the flush on the river. With that said if a 7 falls on the river and he pushes like hes missed the FD do we call?
I just think your draw is to big to be playing this weak but you have position so you missed the free card on offer when hes showed he has something.
Damn this is a lot of analysis. This is a really good hand to post. Preflop/flop are perfect. The turn is interesting.
The fact that he called the flop means he has a hand. Likely a pair or a flush draw. If he has like 66/77/88 etc which I put him on a bunch of the time he's going to muck to your J turn bet. If he has the FD, he's probably going to muck too, although he could have caught the J but I wouldn't be too worried about that.
So if he has the FD you really want to check behind, as you have showdown value whereas he may not. Also he's gonna have your flush beat.
If he has an overpair he'd probably raise the flop, unless he's really passive. So really on the flop I'd be pretty strongly putting him on middlepairs or a high flush draw like AQs/AKs maybe AJs/KQs. There are only 3 combos of these hands though, whereas there are more combos of middle pair hands he could have.
I feel like he has 66-99 most of the time here. Given that, I think checking behind on the turn is by far the best plan.
In general in this spot I'm going to be checking the turn 90% of the time, unless I think he's loose enough to have floated me on the flop. Default play should be to check the turn with a draw sort of hand here, then re-evaluate the river.
Check back turn here alllllllll day against tighter regulars
:)
Vili convinced me I was wrong.
looks like i got to the party a little late on this one.
great to read through the thoughts behind it all.
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