Bonus that cost me

I had a little bit of my Ironman bonus to clear and my wife was out with her friends last night.  So even though I was tired and my sessions usually last no more than 90 minutes, I played for twice that.  I know better.  Overall, I think I played OK, but there were definitely some spots that I fell victim to poor decision making.  The worst was stacking off with TT on an A2564 board because the guy was super aggressive.  I raise preflop, he calls on the button (he's 37/25/5.4 over a large sample).  He folds to c-bets 32% and raises them 19%, so when I make a c-bet and he minraises, I of course think he's FOS.  And he might be sometimes, but if he's going to stack off on a triple barrel, there have got to be better times for me to oblige him.  Just gross.  Lost two more stacks on coolers (top two < bottom set button vs. SB, AA < top pair turned trips in a reraised blind battle).  Did a good job taking all 3 of those hands in stride and not letting them make me play any worse, and got 2 of those stacks back over the session also, so it was not a total loss.  And I finished out the bonus for a sweet $21 or so :).

Got a full day of family stuff today, so won't be playing any more hands.  January was a good month in spite of how it ended last night.  I got myself in position for another 200NL shot, and following the advice I gave Brian, I used a lesson with Jared to do my first session of this shot.  That worked out pretty well, as I made a little over 3 BI in less than an hour of playing, so a decent profit even after I paid for the lesson, which is always nice :).  I've got somewhat mixed feelings about continuing at 200NL on my own because as much as I feel my game has gotten more solid, I know I also have significant room for improvement.  But as reg-infested as the 200NL games are compared to the 100NL games, there are also a lot of poor players who make worse mistakes than I do, so I'll probably continue.

I was talking with Jared about the rate of my improvement.  While I'm definitely better now than earlier, the rate of improvement has not been so great.  As far as coaching goes, he believes it would be much more effective to have lessons twice a month than once a month (obviously more lessons > less lessons, but also he thinks I regress because I don't have enough reinforcement and he just doesn't get to see enough).  Pretty sure he's not just looking to give more lessons...he's got a wait list now, and he's also raised his rates significantly, but is letting me continue at the old rate for a little bit.  So, I had a couple lessons in January, I'll have a couple in February, and then take it from there.  At his new rate, it will be pretty hard for my roll to swallow a couple lessons a month because I just don't get in the volume of play to make up for it.

So, if I decide that I just can't afford 2 lessons a month with the volume I play, I wonder if 1 lesson a month is worth it.  Interested in your guys' thoughts on this.

Snow Play

Went with the family up to Lake Tahoe for a couple days last Sunday and Monday.  No big deal for those of you who actually get all 4 seasons, but it's been a few years since my kids were in the snow, so they enjoyed it quite a bit.  It was cold and snowy.  Rather than ski, we went tubing and ice skating, along with some other stuff.  First day of tubing was at a little hill where they created a couple lanes and you paid $10 for their inner tubes and got a good workout hiking back up.  Not much fun for the adults, and the kids quickly got tired of walking back up the hill and wanted to go have a snowball fight.  After that, we went down to the lakeshore and tried to build a snowman, but there wasn't enough fresh snow, so we gave up.

We ate dinner at the Harrah's Lake Tahoe buffet, but in spite of being there for dinner and our hotel only a block away, I didn't gamble.  The poker room is actually at their sister hotel across the street -- Harvey's -- and isn't big, nor do they spread a big game, so I didn't feel like I was missing much.  Instead, we gave the kids some cash and let them go nuts in the arcade.  Every kid's arcade on the planet (or at least on the West Coast) now seems to have a mix of actual arcade video games and other games where the objective is to collect as many paper tickets as you can, to later trade in for prizes.  I think if you spent about $5000, and got lucky with the games, you could get a Wii.  That said, my son might have some future as a gambler.  He played this roulette game where you had to select the color a spinning ball would stop on.  There were 6 different colors, all with different "odds" based on how big a slot corresponded to the color.  He went 5-for-5 and collected massive tickets.  Those, along with tickets from another $15 or so worth of games was good for a cool looking key chain and a little bit of candy :).  He almost had enough for the stuffed football, but just missed :(.

Next day, 3 of the 4 of us strapped on ice skates for the first time (my wife ice skated before).  I'm certainly not good, but having done a lot of inline skating gave me a head start picking up ice skating, and I managed to be able to skate around pretty confidently, although nothing fast or anything, and I never did try to stop quickly.  My daughter now wants to do ice skating for her birthday party, so maybe I'll have a chance to skate again soon.

The final thing we did was to go tubing at a different place, actually part of a decent-sized ski resort.  On the side of the beginner's run near the base lodge, they set up a tubing run.  This place used the same sort of tubes that you use for going tubing behind a ski boat, and they hooked the tubes up to a rope tow, so you didn't have to hike up the hill.  The ultimate for lazy guys!  Actually, I didn't think any of the tubing was all that fun, with once exception.  What they did at the bottom of the hill was to build a wall and put some rubber mats in front of it to slow you down.  You go about half way up the wall, then go gently back down where you get out of the tube.  One time, I went down with my son.  With the extra weight came some extra speed.  And for some reason we missed the rubber mats.  Not only did we fly over the wall, we cleared the fence they had behind the wall just to catch the occasional tuber who goes over.  Evidently, we cleared it by a lot.  Behind this wall is just a steep drop to the ski slope below.  We bounced a couple times, then ended up on the ski slope.  Until my son realized he'd whacked the side of his head pretty good, he thought it was the best thing ever.  I was just happy to be in one piece, but given that I was, it was pretty cool.  Tubing X-games FTW. 

Evidently, none of the workers there had ever seen anyone clear the fence, and the guy at the top of the run didn't even wait to see if we were alright...he was sure we'd need some medical attention, so he radioed the ski patrol to come get us.  Hmm, seems kind of lame writing it up, but at the very least, it broke the monotony for the ride attendants..they kept talking about it until we left a couple hours later.

I'll try to have some poker content next time...haven't played too much, but what little I have has been going better, but still some things to keep working on.  Been chatting with my coach, and neither of us is pleased with the progress I've been making (or more accurately that the progress isn't maintained...do some stuff well, then regress, then get better again, etc.).  More thoughts on that next time.

Standard spot

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $189.55
BB: $135.40
Hero (UTG): $116.90
CO: $240.45
BTN: $113.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ah Js
Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 5d 3c As (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $15, Hero asks readers what to do

This seems like it should be a totally standard spot, but I'm debating the plan for the rest of the hand.  Obviously, he could have a set, and he should raise at some point to make sure he can get stacks in.  But sets are hard to make.  Not too many 2-pair possibilities given it's HJ vs CO (i.e., can't count on him cold calling with crappy aces, but occasionally he will).  Most of the time, better aces reraise me preflop in this spot.  So, it's probably more likely that he's either outright bluffing or value-raising worse.

Given that, I think a call here is good.  But is it a call, only to fold out of position when he follows up on the turn, or does he barrel his air/continue value betting worse enough to continue if he bets the turn.

If we check the turn and he checks, what do we do on the river (assume turn and river brick off)?  Try to bet for small value?  Would I get value out of hands that check behind the turn in this case?  Give him a chance to bluff again, since I've now shown a lot of weakness?

Getting called on a paired flop

Villain was 35/11 and cold-called a lot over a few hundred.  I haven't been at the table that long, no history.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $83.80
UTG: $209.35
MP: $28.70
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $34.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Th Tc
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($11.50) 8d 8s 2d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, SB folds

Turn: ($25.50) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $25.50, BTN says "hmmmm", BTN calls $24 all in

River: ($73.50) 5d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $73.50
Hero shows Th Tc (two pair, Tens and Eights)
BTN shows 8h 8c (four of a kind, Eights)
BTN wins $70.50
(Rake: $3.00)

The guy seems like a bit of a drooler, so what is his range when he calls the flop?  Of course he could have an 8, but I think we also should give him overcards and flush draws.  However, on such a dry flop, a call from him is pretty scary, or would be if we were full stacked.

Let's assume he's not floating that often, so he's likely to check behind if he's behind (and also sometimes if he's ahead, so he can cleverly trap me on the river).  But if I make a big bet on the turn and he calls, I'm almost definitely screwed.  At the time, I think I was thinking that if no more money was going to go in from him unless he pulled ahead of me, I might as well go ahead and bet to make him either make a mistake or sacrifice his pot equity by folding.  And since the stacks were so short (pot-size bet left), any bet might as well just be a shove.

I'm not sure that's a huge mistake given how little we have behind, as I think I do want to bet.  But, by making a pot-sized shove, I'm pretty much assuring that I don't get called by worse, and here no better hand is ever folding.  His flop call means that he's likely got 6-12 outs when behind, and I think that I want to make a bet here that encourages the top part of his range to make a mistake by calling, given I don't think I can induce a bluff now or a bad call on the river by checking the turn.  So, maybe making a $15 bet into $25.50 would be better.  I still get to protect my pot equity, but now I might also get some more worse hands to call.  True, for some of them, he might call anyway to a PSB, but probably only his very best hands that are behind me.

The other option is to check, and that might be for the best here, under the assumption that he didn't call the flop with the intention to float me (he just called because he calls a lot)...but even though that might not be his intention, I think the temptation to float would be pretty high if he ended up with the opportunity, yet a check/call on the turn seems bad too.

So, what do you guys do with so little behind?

Thoughts on yesterday's hand

Thanks for the comments, glad I posted that hand because I had to get pointed towards thinking better about it, as unfortunately I didn't recognize myself that it was a pretty bad play.  Here's where I think my thinking just was bad...I didn't give enough thought to what the preflop raiser/flop c-bettor's range was.  Based on his stats, he's not going to be way out of line.  HU and he might bet a good part of his preflop range on that board.  But, with 3 people to act after him, two of whom will have position on future streets, he is not going to be c-betting light.  I don't really gain much from raising, and stand to lose a ton.  This doesn't even take into account what the guys behind *me* will do.  The best that I can hope for after my raise is that the original raiser decides to see what happens on the turn, but more than likely I'm in a bad spot if he can call my raise.

As to whether or not to fold when he reraises me, I still think it's a fold.  I mean, you guys are right that I should not raise/fold, but I think the raise itself was pretty bad, now that I'm looking back on it.  The only time I should be raising is when I've got a solid read that he's wild enough to go ahead and call it off (but even then I don't think a raise is the best play).  I think he's shoving here fairly tight:  sets, overpairs, broadway hearts.  If that's right, I've only got 22% equity.  If I add in some straight draws (that don't come with flush draws), I can approach 30%, but I think that may be a little optimistic.

Food is better when it's free?

We've got some customers in the office working on a project with us.  I'm not directly involved, but did get to grab some of their leftover pizza at the end of lunch.  It was pretty standard and only lukewarm having sat out for an hour or so, but it was free, and that made it taste better.

It's a little cold here, but there's no snow on the ground or anything like that, so if it doesn't rain, I still get to play tennis once a week or so.  It was pretty cool looking under the lights last night...all four of us had a ton of steam coming off us.  The bad part about playing in the cold is that you don't move quite as fast as you're used to...so my timing was pretty screwed up.

Today's "big" losing hand isn't all that big, but I only played a short session and it was the biggest loser.  Pretty sure it was fine, though.  MP seems pretty straightforward...19/17/3, somewhat low fold to 3-bet over a good sample.  Blinds were both pretty loose/passive.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $131.75
UTG: $68.05
MP: $100.00
Hero (CO): $121.95
BTN: $136.60
SB: $130.65

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ks Qs
1 fold, MP raises to $4, Hero calls $4, BTN calls $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($16.50) Qh 7s 9h (4 players)
BB checks, MP bets $11, Hero raises to $34, BTN folds, BB folds, MP raises to $96 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $84.50
MP wins $81.50
(Rake: $3.00)

I used to not really cold call too much with anything other than pocket pairs, but this one should be fine.  I can continue on a lot of flops, plus I'd love the blinds to come along with us.  More interesting question is what to do preflop if our hand is unsuited.  In that case, I might 3-bet and try more to take down dead money since I'm significantly less excited about a multiway pot, even with the same bad players.

Hello 2009

NYE was pretty fun and close to home so no long drive back.  Hope you all enjoyed your celebrations too.  Didn't really think the bowl games I watched were all that good, although to be fair I'm not watching nearly as much sports as I used to, so I didn't know too much about the teams beforehand.  Was glad to see that the Pac 10 kicked butt in their bowls, though :).

I'm poorer at the beginning of 2009 than I was at the beginning of 2008.  Outside of poker as well as in poker.  But this is about poker, and unfortunately, 2008 was a losing year, although in BB/100, it was positive.  In total $$ it was positive, too, thanks to bonii and rakeback. 

But as far as actual play goes, I followed the old do-well-at-lower-stakes-get-beat-at-higher-stakes game plan.  I think I'm a better player by quite a bit, though, and I know that should be more important in the bigger scheme.  I think I'm going to change my BR approach a little bit.  It will still be aggressive for someone playing full time, but since I'm not, I can afford to be a little more aggressive.  I'll wait a bit longer before playing higher, but when I do, it will be with more of a cushion.  My sense from playing is that with table selection, there is not a big difference in the quality of play between .5/1 and 1/2, so I think if I can continue winning decently at .5/1, I should be able to be at least marginal at 1/2.

Here's today's hand.  I think it's pretty basic, actually, but it was the biggest loser from the prior session with most of the money going in postflop, so that's how I'm randomizing my hands.

Over 600 hundred hands, villain 3-bet from the button pretty wide (I know it's a smallish sample, and don't think it matters a ton for the hand anyway).  He was about 30/15 as far as vpip/pfr goes, if that makes any difference.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $141.70
BB: $160.45
Hero (UTG): $134.10
MP: $62.55
CO: $92.40
BTN: $105.05

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Kd
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN raises to $14, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $31, BTN calls $17

Flop: ($63.50) 9c Jd 3d (2 players)
Hero bets $103.10 all in, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $74.05 all in

Turn: ($211.60) 7h (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($211.60) 2s (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $211.60
Hero shows Ad Kd (Ace King high)
BTN shows Qh Qc (a pair of Queens)
BTN wins $208.60
(Rake: $3.00)

Pretty sure this is neutral or a little +EV, given I don't plan to fold.  QQ is what I expect to get shown most often, but do you think that there are a significant number of other hands (compared to the number of QQ hands) he could have preflop?  Like 88-QQ, AQ+?  I thought if he could show up here with more PP's or AK sometimes and I can fold those on this board, it was a good play.  If he can only show up with JJ and QQ and he's going to play straightforward in reraised pot, then I suppose I could check, hope he checks, and see if I can hit on the turn (and fold if I miss).  But that doesn't seem right to me, because it does assume such a tight range for an unknown who has not proven anything, and that he would check behind the flop with that range anyway.

Happy New Year

I'm working today :(.  Probably going to leave a bit early, though.  We're planning to go to a pot luck with several other families, at least for a little while.  Cocktails, champagne and prime rib.  Should be fun, but I doubt we'll make it to midnight...my son is recovering from a flu bug and my wife has been a little under the weather as well.

Here's today's hand.  Not something I do much.

Villain was a little loose.  Passive preflop, aggressive postflop, was in the middle of berating someone when I joined the table, so I thought he might be a bit tilted.  I've been pretty aggressive in general, but showed down a quality hand.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $51.05
MP: $142.25
CO: $93.00
Hero (BTN): $177.60
SB: $100.00
BB: $101.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Ac Qs
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, MP calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 3h 9h 5d (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $8, MP raises to $16, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($42.50) Tc (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $24.50, MP calls $24.50

River: ($91.50) 4s (2 players)
MP bets $97.25 all in, Hero folds

I guess I thought on the flop that he was pretty polarized, so I tried to float him.

What's the worst hand you'd call with here....

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $173.55
MP: $271.40
CO: $1278.35
BTN: $194.10
SB: $74.60
Hero (BB): $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with xx
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, SB calls $1, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($18.00) Jd 9h 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $14, UTG raises to $165.55 all in, Hero...

I don't have any reads to give, but the guy did limp/call preflop first in, so make of that what you will.  In addition to the bottom end of your calling range, what is the minimum hand you'd be pretty happy to have when you call?

Steady Ebb

In an effort to make myself write more, I'm going to try posting my biggest losing hand from each session to see if anyone notices a trend.  I think the only rule is that most of the money has to go in postflop (so no KK vs AA hands where it all gets in preflop).  One of the things I periodically notice with Jared is that when we do hand reviews, he picks up stuff I'm not aware are big problems.  So, even though I don't think that just picking the biggest losers is the best way to review play, it's not a bad place to start if you're looking randomly for blind spots :).

First one is actually not a huge pot, but it was the biggest one of the session...one of those slow bleeding sessions where nothing big happens but you either don't hit, or when you do, you get no action.  Villain is pretty loose and cold calls a lot preflop, but otherwise nothing special.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $97.90
Hero (UTG): $219.30
CO: $164.80
BTN: $52.65
SB: $72.55

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with Kh Kd
Hero raises to $7, CO calls $7, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($24.00) 2s 8d 9s (3 players)
Hero bets $19, CO calls $19, BTN folds

Turn: ($62.00) Td (2 players)
Hero bets $47, CO calls $47

River: ($156.00) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $91.80 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $156.00
CO wins $153.00
(Rake: $3.00)

I think this hand is pretty standard, at least through the flop.  No reason not to value bet on the flop.  On the turn, the ten isn't a great card because some draws got there as well as some of his range making two pair.  I bet, intending to fold to a raise, because he's pretty loose and there are a number of worse hands I think he calls with.  I can't really see anything to do on the river besides check and hope he checks behind.

December Update

Hey guys, sorry I've been so quiet, but really have not had much going on, poker-wise.  Tons of work and busy with the holidays, good stuff, not too exciting, though.  I have been playing short sessions a few days a week...wanted to make Iron Man this month so I could get a small year-end bonus at FT.

Got a new laptop a few weeks ago (wife and I gave each other laptops for Christmas :) ).  So, I've used some time getting it set up.  It's a big sucker, 17-inch, 1900 x 1200, so I can put as many tables as I want and still have room left over.  Strange thing is my POS work laptop running XP seems to be better able to handle 6 tables plus associated software than this new computer running Vista.  In every other respect, the new laptop is better than the old one.  Oh, well.

I'm just about at the end of another failed shot to stick at 1/2.  The pattern this year has been to beat up on .5/1 and get beat up at 1/2, relatively speaking.  My problem is that I play pretty low volume and have an aggressive bankroll strategy, so I am subject to a lot of potentially failed shots.  But over 25k hands at 1/2, now, I've lost over 25 BI.  Half of that was during a time when I was playing and running like shit (went from relatively comfortably rolled at 1/2 dropping almost down to the bottom of my .5/1 BR threshold).

This latest shot, though, I've been playing pretty well, and just not having stuff work out too well.  I have dropped a lot of poker activity (blogs, forums, videos have been pretty scarce).  But I have continued to be diligent reviewing my own play in depth and have been taking advantage of Jared's help reviewing a few hands from each session as well.  So, I'm pretty confident that I'm playing OK, and it's not like I'm in a big downswing or anything.  My BR "strategy" revolves around 5 BI shots, and I've lost 4.9 BI this time...so one more loser and I'm back to .5/1.

Now, this doesn't affect me financially, but it does make me question sometimes whether I should keep at it.  Part of my motivation to play is the prospect of improving and moving up the ranks.  But if I need to put in a lot more effort than I do now, I don't know if I want to absorb it.  I still think I'm already good enough to profit at 1/2.  I'm not saying I'm great, but I try to table select and I see a lot of bad play, so I should be able to have some sort of profit as I continue to work on my game.  But it's definitely possible my assessment is too optimistic.

I certainly still have the passion for poker, but I've got a lot of other things I'd like more time for as well.  We'll see.  I read periodically about people quitting the game in frustration, but for me, it would be regret.  Hopefully, it won't come to that, and either my game will improve or my luck will turn around at 1/2 and beyond.

November Summary

In some ways, November was a non-event for poker.  I am overloaded with work stuff -- thankfully pretty interesting -- and towards the end of the month with the holiday season getting underway.  That resulted fewer hands than normal, and I don't play a lot of hands to start with.  I also made very little time for anything other than session reviews:  two videos, almost zero forum activity, very few blog entries and comments (sorry, guys!), etc.  

Actually, on that last one...if I've ever made a comment on your blog, I have  been keeping up with it (Google Reader FTW), but I'm doing most of my blog reading on an iPhone, which makes it harder to leave comments.  As things slow down, I should have more time to check from my PC instead, so hopefully I'll be able to comment.  But, I am at least reading!

OK, back to the summary.  Even though the number of hands is few, I have got my game back on track.  I had slipped into some semi-bad habits after running like crap for a bit, and I was making a cold stretch significantly worse than it had to be.  One of those bad habits was slacking off with my own hand analysis, including sending a few to Jared each time.  We used one coaching session for a PT/replayer review.  For those of you with coaches, I would really suggest you dedicate a session to review every once in a while.  Had some hands in that review that I would not have thought to single out for comments for one reason or another, but which I was misplaying.  It underscores one of the reasons I think a coach (or mentor, if you've got a good poker network) is so valuable...we all have blind spots.  So now, even though it cuts even more into my playing time, for the most part, I am not starting a new session until I've done at least a cursory review of the prior one.

I'm still off my bankroll high by about the same percentage as my 401(k) plan is off its portfolio high (boo!), but my immediate prospects are good, if I can maintain my review and play discipline.  Hopefully this month I will have some time for a few more videos, as I've got a few tagged I would really like to study.  For now though, I have to turn my attention back away from poker because there are a couple monthly work project updates that need doing.

Back in business

I had to get a new hard drive, which was a mixed blessing.  It was a royal pain in the ass to get everything set up again, even with access to my old files.  There are so many different settings to get in again, and that was even being clever in a lot of cases...I found where a lot of different configuration files were stored.  The good part is that I had accumulated a ton of junk on my hard drive, and try as I might to clean it out, nothing beats starting from scratch.  My computer seems a lot more responsive.  I now have a 120GB drive.  Although that is smaller than most drives that come with new computers, it should give me a decent amount of space to play with...bring on the datamines and the video downloads :).

I spent Friday and the weekend, when I had time, re-installing everything.  I haven't checked Google Reader in a few days, but I just looked and have 1000+ unread posts.  Surely I'll never read most of those, but for you guys whose blogs I keep up with, I will catch up soon.  Not today because I also have a couple work deadlines...but certainly by the end of the week.

Home life has been a bummer...my wife injured her back and has been pretty much out of commission.  Of all the stuff to go wrong with your back, hers was the least bad...some sort of muscle pull/spasm/strain that the killer muscle relaxers the doctor prescribed are helping with.   No herniated discs or other nightmare back issues...this is bad enough!  I'm getting a chance to pile up massive husband points, as well, but no time for much else.

I listened to Leatherass on the 2p2 podcast last week and heard the coolest golf bet in quite a while.  Evidently, when he was a hotshot junior golfer, he bet his club pro he could beat the pro using only one club.  Using a 4-iron, he shot 76 or something like that and beat the pro.  I'm sure that he was a better than scratch golfer at the time to be able to do that, but even so it's pretty amazing, IMO.  Let's say that he was a +2 (extremely good golfer at any level, but got to believe that's among the best in the country for 15 year olds).  That equates to about shooting 70.  So, he goes up 6 strokes only using one club.  I'm a pretty good golfer -- not awesome, but a single digit handicapper -- and if I could only use one club the whole round, I'd be shocked to shoot within 18 shots of my handicap.  I might try it for 9 holes with a 7-iron one day, just to see.

Where the hell did this week go?

Seems like Monday was just yesterday and now the week is just about over and I did nothing.  Actually, worked a ton so far (same projects, lots of issues to resolve, going well), but did have a lesson on the company's time this morning to make up for it a little bit.  And I'm following up with that by writing up this post, too.  Yay, me. 

For the first time in a long while, I did a PT review rather than a sweat or video, and I forgot how helpful those are.  I know that I've been mixing in playing bad with running bad, and as we looked through some individual hands, that was borne out.  If I had to say what the bigger influence is, it would be running bad, but far from 100%.  I wonder how much cause and effect there is between playing bad and running bad. 

Certainly my motivation to grind has dropped off due to this downswing, even though a lot of the DS is my fault in the first place. It's human nature to avoid unpleasant things in favor of pleasant things.  With so many other things going pretty well and poker not so much, I guess it's not surprising that it's dropped off.  Jared was able to extract a few things in general that confirmed some of my own thoughts, but he did pick up one thing that was new for me.  I've been playing my big draws very fast, but not optimally.  Getting in with a massive draw will not likely be a big EV mistake in a vacuum, but it doesn't mean that indiscriminately betting and raising is the most EV way to go about it, either.  Also, I had miscalculated my likely equity in a couple big draw situations...mostly stemming from a poor job on my part assigning hand ranges.

One point that Jared makes over and over -- which I do OK internalizing to various degrees -- is that while "advanced" plays are all well and good, they are not at all necessary at small stakes.  Things like 4-bet bluffs preflop, floating, etc.  He doesn't object to working them into my game because there are spots even at these stakes where they work.  And I certainly don't go way overboard with that sort of stuff.  His point is more that they are higher variance and I should think about the balance between trying to use those plays and just playing "boring, straightforward" poker.

Finally, @ Brian and Willie:  thanks a ton for your comments on my last post.  Brian, I will try to take you up on your offer, although my window for playing my be outside of your window for sweats, due to time zones.  If nothing else, after I get done posting this, I'll look you up on AIM so that you know who's pinging you :).

Willie, I actually have been playing on a different site...Stars.   I've got a smaller roll there, enough for 50NL, so I've been building up my roll and confidence in that game.  My WR @ 50NL is about the same as my lose-rate @ 100NL...so I just need to play twice as many 50NL hands to break even :).  Absolute isn't for me.  It's fine for whoever wants to play there, but I'm so disgusted at what happened there and their reaction that I just don't want to support them.  I will say that if I made my living playing, I might not be so righteous about it...if I thought my edge there was big enough...so I certainly don't fault anyone if they want to play there...just not for me.  As far as different games, I have actually thought about that, and talked about it with a couple folks.  For a number of reasons, I want to stick with 6m NL for now, but I do think that before all that long, I will incorporate some HU NL and/or PLO.  I've thought about trying limit because I was quite successful with it (by my standards) back in the day...but with tougher games now plus having to re-learn parts, let's just say I'd rather leave that legacy of success intact :).

October = Bleah

October was the worst month ever, winrate-wise.  Sample size is really small, though, as life outside poker has gotten busier again.  Just about all good, but busy.  I did log some hands over the last week, trying to get back into the flow.  I've been watching videos, did my own video on Deuces Cracked, listened to some strategy via podcast, and read a fair amount as well.  So, when I played, I didn't really feel too rusty (kept it at 4 tables max).

But the results still blew chunks as far as I'm concerned.  I played 100NL on FT and 50NL on Stars to build up my roll there.  Each 100NL session was a big loss, and the 50NL sessions were mostly wins.  The games didn't play that different, I didn't play that different.  The play at my 100NL tables was worse than the play on my 50NL tables a lot of the time.  In most ways I feel very in control of my game, and the ways that I am not in control I know right away I'm making mistakes, like before villain even does anything.  My playing discipline in a lot of ways is really strong, but let's just say I really need to make myself pause before acting.  I'm doing things I know I should not (and not doing some things I know I should), and it's because even with only a couple tables open, I'm not thinking things through enough.

I continue to at least in some part take a running-bad stretch and augment it with playing-bad.  Not a ton, but still way more than I should.

Something else happened to me over the last week that always scares me...I couldn't find any hands where I was really torn about how to play...outside of the mistakes I knew right away I made, everything else seemed either standard or even that I played it well.  The reason this scares me is that I don't think I'm good enough to play 3,000 hands and not be torn.  Again, I don't think I played perfect, just that I'm looking back on it and not questioning.

So, my plan is to get a session going with Jared this week and have him just watch me play and see if anything jumps out at him.  I'm a bit at sea right now with my game...feeling in control of it and losing at an alarming rate (over 10k hands, now, and more importantly to me, like 2 months long).  It's difficult to maintain confidence because I don't have a long-term track record yet.  Honestly I don't think I ever will have a long term track record...the game conditions and my condition changes more quickly than I can log say 100k hands.  Anyway, I think that I can substitute some of the confidence/game assessment with a coach.  That leads to a different problem:  if my current winrate (lose-rate, really) continues too much longer, I won't really have the bankroll to happily get coaching, at least from Jared.  Oh, woe is me :P.

Hmm, this is coming off pretty whiny to me.  Bottom line, I think, is that I'm suffering a crisis of confidence which is sapping my enthusiasm to play.  And I'm starting to wonder if I'm wired to play poker well.  I mean, I've now been at 100NL for a year.  I've been able to push into 200NL, but those shots have failed.  And now, I'm in sight of having to drop back down below 100NL again.  I'm smart and all that, but if I haven't been able to move past what I consider to be a pretty basic level yet, I'm not sure I'll ever do well in the game.  I'll still play, study, etc., because I still find it interesting.  But with all the coaching, videos, study work, software, datamining, etc., I really think I should be able to crush at these stakes if I were any good.  And not only am I not crushing, I'm barely treading water over 100k+ hands, and have been sinking like a stone over the last 25k or so.

Poker, what's that?

Been taking a little break (kind of) from the tables, and poker stuff in general.  I've been getting too frustrated with the downswing I've been on, so I've just said screw it to playing for a bit.  I will not make Ironman this month, the first time that's happened in a year, at least.  I've played  a bit on Stars for a change of pace.  My role is smaller there, so I've been donking around at the 50NL tables.  I've got very few reads, but the play is really not very good.  In a small sample, I'm up a BI real money, and tons in Sklansky bucks (same story, different site).  Don't know if I've just gotten more used to FT, but I don't like the software nearly as much at Stars.  Some of it has to do with the awesome FullTiltShortcuts program I use on FT, but in general, I'm just more comfortable with the FT software.  However, if I'm going to drop down and get some confidence back, it might as well be on the site where my roll is smaller so I can build it up, and f*ck FT anyway for dealing me so many coolers (stupid, I know).  Still, I'm only probably going to play like 5k hands this month, so it doesn't matter much where I play.

My Deuces Cracked video got released Monday, and the feedback is generally very positive (directed at Joe Tall and Jared).  I agree.  Hopefully, they will continue that series.  I like the more in depth conversations.  Joe keeps the talk flowing, but also provides another point of view.  In general, the videos where they get two coaches going back and forth are good (see Coaching Tree, among others).

Other than that, it's been work work work, except today.  I played golf with my boss and a college buddy whom I hadn't seen since graduation (and for me, that means a lot longer time than it does for you guys).  Awesome to catch up.  He's done awesome for himself, and has had kind of a dream life in a lot of respects, but in spite of that, it was very cool to hang out with him and get caught up :).

Late Night Coaching with Joe Tall

I am the featured student for an upcoming LNC episode on Deuces Cracked.  I tried to find some interesting hands.  I thought at first that the hands were pretty uninteresting, but after going through the recording and seeing what sorts of things came up, I changed my mind.  I did OK with hand selection.  I picked some hands where I thought I did OK but wanted confirmation, and some hands where I knew I screwed up but I thought were still interesting. 

Jared, my coach, does a great job 1:1 with me instructing not only the "what" but the "why."  He did just as well for the video, with both Joe and me firing questions.  Like the rest of the series, we didn't go over a ton of hands, but got some interesting conversation on all of them.  If you like the series, you should like this episode.

I didn't ask a ton of questions (IMO), but I had a lot written down (surprise).  Joe asked the very questions I had on my mind a lot of the time, which I'll take as a good sign for me.  I'm at least thinking about the right sorts of things.  I won't give away the episode, but if you watch, you'll definitely get to see at least one total brain-dead play on my part.  No surprise there :P.  Obviously, anyone watches, I'd be interested to hear if you have any different opinions about the analysis.

Ugh, make it stop

Here's another one of the things that ticks me off about being a small-volume player...few hundred hands here, few hundred hands there, few thousand hands for a month:  downswings can go really long on the calendar.  My last 15k hands I've run way below expectations.  That in and of itself is frustrating just because I hate to lose.  My play has been pretty poor in spots, so I'm making it wore than it needs to be for sure.  But the biggest frustration is that for me, this represents almost 2 months worth of play.  Over the last couple months, it's been a steady stream (seemingly) of getting  all-in as a 3:1 or better favorite, and then they get there...and all the usual stuff that we whine about when running poorly.  Intellectually, I know it's going to happen.  Even emotionally, I'm OK with it.  I'm pretty sure I've gotten a little gunshy and too cautious, but the whackiness isn't majorly affecting my play or even steaming me too much.  I more laugh about it, to be honest, and I'm trying most of the time to not even look at how the hand plays out once the cards flip up, and I make whatever note on my opponent is appropriate.

The problem is that while I've gotten good at making my decisions relatively unaffected by results, I haven't yet conquered getting my enjoyment at all unaffected by results.  I played a really long session (for me -- it was 1200 hands) last night.  4 tables only, no distractions, and did a great job thinking through decisions and putting villains on ranges, and was pretty close, a lot of the time.  But after AKs < AQ, AK < AA, AA < runner-runner straight (he had 2 overs, backdoor flush and backdoor straight on the flop and bluff-shoved in a 3-bet pot, LOL), and assorted other shenanigans, I finished down a third of a stack. 

I reviewed all hands with any sort of money in because I actually had no question during game time.  I thought maybe I wasn't paying enough attention to the tables/hands to form questions in such a long session.  Gasp, that does happen sometimes!  But everything seemed standard even when I reviewed.

Discounting for the moment that I'm sure I'm missing my mistakes in review as well as at game time, I should be pretty happy that I got the money in good and that I feel I played really well and didn't make any (obvious) mistakes for this session.  But because I basically broke even, I just found that I didn't enjoy it.  These sorts of sessions have been enjoyable when I'm on a heater or even when I have a mix of good and bad results, but because it's been so long -- on the calendar -- since I've run well, I just feel disappointed.  For guys who play 15k hands in a week, they just have a bad week.  I know they don't enjoy it either, but at least for them, they're bound to play through it pretty quickly and at least get back to breaking even ;).  No guarantees, of course, but I'm still holding onto the conviction that I'm capable of beating the game at these stakes, regardless of the last few months :P.

Back from vacation

Been on a family vacation for about a week.  I peeked at my work email...245 unread...I do get a fair amount of quickly-deleted FYIs and also get copied on a lot of bug progress reports that I don't need to act on, so I hope to get caught back up on the email backlog quickly.  More time-consuming will be a couple big projects that were getting to critical points before I left.  It's that sort of stuff that pushes vacations into the distant past pretty quickly :(.

Nothing poker related until this morning when I tried to catch up on some blogs.  No hands, no videos, no forums, no even thinking about poker, except when we drove past Commerce :).  I hope that will give me a nice refreshed outlook when I finally do fire up the poker client...September was dismal, by far my worst month $$ wise.  My play didn't feel confident, but I think it was the results influencing my feelings more than playing significantly worse.  I was able to review a lot of hands before I left, and the number of known bad plays and questionable plays was pretty consistent with historical rates.

I did look back to the beginning of the year, and my results are pretty depressing, to be honest.  Over the last 100k hands, I'm a paltry .66 BB/100 winner, and a decent loser (like 4 BB/100) at 200NL, and an overall $$ loser over that time (rakeback and bonii make up for that so that I am barely positive).  I know there are a lot of spots I could do better, but still, I think of myself as a better than breakeven player.  Still, I'm ready to play again after some time off, so enjoying a hobby counts for something, I guess.

I'm not sure what I could realistically be doing differently in terms of learning, preparation, etc.  I talked about this for a bit with Jared, and he believes that what I'm doing...getting in the hands when I can and thoroughly reviewing my play as the top priority...then taking in videos and strategy forums as lower priority is the way to go.  I tend to agree, although I am going to drop some review in favor of videos and forums.  In other words, instead of all review and no videos, it will be a decent amount of review and a few videos.

I have a lot of notes

I'm really pretty good about taking notes.  Between theory notes from stuff I read/watch, detailed notes on videos, thoughts on hands that I screwed up, correspondence with people -- mostly coaches -- about hands and sweat sessions, and other assorted crap, I think I've got 30-50 pages of stuff accumulated over the years.  Oh, and I've got this blog.

The problem is I never really go back and review...with any sort of deep thought...most of it.  I watch so few videos compared to what's out there that I'll probably never go back and concentrate on watching the best ones.

I've got to figure out how to best organize everything so that I can easily access it later.  I'd like to keep things in Word because that works well to port to my iPhone, so I can review without even needing a connection (of course I'm also tempted to get through the next Deuces Cracked video on the phone, too).

Anyway, it's probably good to take a bunch of notes and even write in blogs because the act of doing that forces me to think a bit more about things.  I may not go back and refer to something WiltonTilt said in his math series six months ago, but I still remember some of the content because I went to the trouble of writing down and thinking about some key things.

In other news, I had a big conference to attend this week.  I played for about 90 minutes on Tuesday, and that's all I've had time for.  Next week, I'll be in Disneyland with the family (yeah, Disneyland, go ahead and laugh, but it is fun to be there with the kids).  I'll probably be able to get away with watching an iPhone video here and there, but no way is the computer getting opened for any stretch of time, unless the wife and kids are so exhausted that they fall asleep well before I do.

All told, it will be close to 3 weeks between serious playing, and that's probably fine.  I don't think I've been playing well lately, maybe I'm being results oriented.  I've had an absolutely terrible month, though, and I don't really feel confident at the tables with my decisions.  I think I end up playing OK, but a bit tentative...so I miss some value and probably tend to make too many hero calls.  At least that's the trend when I play without real confidence.  Hopefully, the break will end up erasing whatever lingering doubts remain and I'll have fun playing again.