Bonus that cost me

I had a little bit of my Ironman bonus to clear and my wife was out with her friends last night.  So even though I was tired and my sessions usually last no more than 90 minutes, I played for twice that.  I know better.  Overall, I think I played OK, but there were definitely some spots that I fell victim to poor decision making.  The worst was stacking off with TT on an A2564 board because the guy was super aggressive.  I raise preflop, he calls on the button (he's 37/25/5.4 over a large sample).  He folds to c-bets 32% and raises them 19%, so when I make a c-bet and he minraises, I of course think he's FOS.  And he might be sometimes, but if he's going to stack off on a triple barrel, there have got to be better times for me to oblige him.  Just gross.  Lost two more stacks on coolers (top two < bottom set button vs. SB, AA < top pair turned trips in a reraised blind battle).  Did a good job taking all 3 of those hands in stride and not letting them make me play any worse, and got 2 of those stacks back over the session also, so it was not a total loss.  And I finished out the bonus for a sweet $21 or so :).

Got a full day of family stuff today, so won't be playing any more hands.  January was a good month in spite of how it ended last night.  I got myself in position for another 200NL shot, and following the advice I gave Brian, I used a lesson with Jared to do my first session of this shot.  That worked out pretty well, as I made a little over 3 BI in less than an hour of playing, so a decent profit even after I paid for the lesson, which is always nice :).  I've got somewhat mixed feelings about continuing at 200NL on my own because as much as I feel my game has gotten more solid, I know I also have significant room for improvement.  But as reg-infested as the 200NL games are compared to the 100NL games, there are also a lot of poor players who make worse mistakes than I do, so I'll probably continue.

I was talking with Jared about the rate of my improvement.  While I'm definitely better now than earlier, the rate of improvement has not been so great.  As far as coaching goes, he believes it would be much more effective to have lessons twice a month than once a month (obviously more lessons > less lessons, but also he thinks I regress because I don't have enough reinforcement and he just doesn't get to see enough).  Pretty sure he's not just looking to give more lessons...he's got a wait list now, and he's also raised his rates significantly, but is letting me continue at the old rate for a little bit.  So, I had a couple lessons in January, I'll have a couple in February, and then take it from there.  At his new rate, it will be pretty hard for my roll to swallow a couple lessons a month because I just don't get in the volume of play to make up for it.

So, if I decide that I just can't afford 2 lessons a month with the volume I play, I wonder if 1 lesson a month is worth it.  Interested in your guys' thoughts on this.

Snow Play

Went with the family up to Lake Tahoe for a couple days last Sunday and Monday.  No big deal for those of you who actually get all 4 seasons, but it's been a few years since my kids were in the snow, so they enjoyed it quite a bit.  It was cold and snowy.  Rather than ski, we went tubing and ice skating, along with some other stuff.  First day of tubing was at a little hill where they created a couple lanes and you paid $10 for their inner tubes and got a good workout hiking back up.  Not much fun for the adults, and the kids quickly got tired of walking back up the hill and wanted to go have a snowball fight.  After that, we went down to the lakeshore and tried to build a snowman, but there wasn't enough fresh snow, so we gave up.

We ate dinner at the Harrah's Lake Tahoe buffet, but in spite of being there for dinner and our hotel only a block away, I didn't gamble.  The poker room is actually at their sister hotel across the street -- Harvey's -- and isn't big, nor do they spread a big game, so I didn't feel like I was missing much.  Instead, we gave the kids some cash and let them go nuts in the arcade.  Every kid's arcade on the planet (or at least on the West Coast) now seems to have a mix of actual arcade video games and other games where the objective is to collect as many paper tickets as you can, to later trade in for prizes.  I think if you spent about $5000, and got lucky with the games, you could get a Wii.  That said, my son might have some future as a gambler.  He played this roulette game where you had to select the color a spinning ball would stop on.  There were 6 different colors, all with different "odds" based on how big a slot corresponded to the color.  He went 5-for-5 and collected massive tickets.  Those, along with tickets from another $15 or so worth of games was good for a cool looking key chain and a little bit of candy :).  He almost had enough for the stuffed football, but just missed :(.

Next day, 3 of the 4 of us strapped on ice skates for the first time (my wife ice skated before).  I'm certainly not good, but having done a lot of inline skating gave me a head start picking up ice skating, and I managed to be able to skate around pretty confidently, although nothing fast or anything, and I never did try to stop quickly.  My daughter now wants to do ice skating for her birthday party, so maybe I'll have a chance to skate again soon.

The final thing we did was to go tubing at a different place, actually part of a decent-sized ski resort.  On the side of the beginner's run near the base lodge, they set up a tubing run.  This place used the same sort of tubes that you use for going tubing behind a ski boat, and they hooked the tubes up to a rope tow, so you didn't have to hike up the hill.  The ultimate for lazy guys!  Actually, I didn't think any of the tubing was all that fun, with once exception.  What they did at the bottom of the hill was to build a wall and put some rubber mats in front of it to slow you down.  You go about half way up the wall, then go gently back down where you get out of the tube.  One time, I went down with my son.  With the extra weight came some extra speed.  And for some reason we missed the rubber mats.  Not only did we fly over the wall, we cleared the fence they had behind the wall just to catch the occasional tuber who goes over.  Evidently, we cleared it by a lot.  Behind this wall is just a steep drop to the ski slope below.  We bounced a couple times, then ended up on the ski slope.  Until my son realized he'd whacked the side of his head pretty good, he thought it was the best thing ever.  I was just happy to be in one piece, but given that I was, it was pretty cool.  Tubing X-games FTW. 

Evidently, none of the workers there had ever seen anyone clear the fence, and the guy at the top of the run didn't even wait to see if we were alright...he was sure we'd need some medical attention, so he radioed the ski patrol to come get us.  Hmm, seems kind of lame writing it up, but at the very least, it broke the monotony for the ride attendants..they kept talking about it until we left a couple hours later.

I'll try to have some poker content next time...haven't played too much, but what little I have has been going better, but still some things to keep working on.  Been chatting with my coach, and neither of us is pleased with the progress I've been making (or more accurately that the progress isn't maintained...do some stuff well, then regress, then get better again, etc.).  More thoughts on that next time.

Standard spot

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $189.55
BB: $135.40
Hero (UTG): $116.90
CO: $240.45
BTN: $113.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ah Js
Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 5d 3c As (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $15, Hero asks readers what to do

This seems like it should be a totally standard spot, but I'm debating the plan for the rest of the hand.  Obviously, he could have a set, and he should raise at some point to make sure he can get stacks in.  But sets are hard to make.  Not too many 2-pair possibilities given it's HJ vs CO (i.e., can't count on him cold calling with crappy aces, but occasionally he will).  Most of the time, better aces reraise me preflop in this spot.  So, it's probably more likely that he's either outright bluffing or value-raising worse.

Given that, I think a call here is good.  But is it a call, only to fold out of position when he follows up on the turn, or does he barrel his air/continue value betting worse enough to continue if he bets the turn.

If we check the turn and he checks, what do we do on the river (assume turn and river brick off)?  Try to bet for small value?  Would I get value out of hands that check behind the turn in this case?  Give him a chance to bluff again, since I've now shown a lot of weakness?

Getting called on a paired flop

Villain was 35/11 and cold-called a lot over a few hundred.  I haven't been at the table that long, no history.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $83.80
UTG: $209.35
MP: $28.70
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $34.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Th Tc
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($11.50) 8d 8s 2d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, SB folds

Turn: ($25.50) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $25.50, BTN says "hmmmm", BTN calls $24 all in

River: ($73.50) 5d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $73.50
Hero shows Th Tc (two pair, Tens and Eights)
BTN shows 8h 8c (four of a kind, Eights)
BTN wins $70.50
(Rake: $3.00)

The guy seems like a bit of a drooler, so what is his range when he calls the flop?  Of course he could have an 8, but I think we also should give him overcards and flush draws.  However, on such a dry flop, a call from him is pretty scary, or would be if we were full stacked.

Let's assume he's not floating that often, so he's likely to check behind if he's behind (and also sometimes if he's ahead, so he can cleverly trap me on the river).  But if I make a big bet on the turn and he calls, I'm almost definitely screwed.  At the time, I think I was thinking that if no more money was going to go in from him unless he pulled ahead of me, I might as well go ahead and bet to make him either make a mistake or sacrifice his pot equity by folding.  And since the stacks were so short (pot-size bet left), any bet might as well just be a shove.

I'm not sure that's a huge mistake given how little we have behind, as I think I do want to bet.  But, by making a pot-sized shove, I'm pretty much assuring that I don't get called by worse, and here no better hand is ever folding.  His flop call means that he's likely got 6-12 outs when behind, and I think that I want to make a bet here that encourages the top part of his range to make a mistake by calling, given I don't think I can induce a bluff now or a bad call on the river by checking the turn.  So, maybe making a $15 bet into $25.50 would be better.  I still get to protect my pot equity, but now I might also get some more worse hands to call.  True, for some of them, he might call anyway to a PSB, but probably only his very best hands that are behind me.

The other option is to check, and that might be for the best here, under the assumption that he didn't call the flop with the intention to float me (he just called because he calls a lot)...but even though that might not be his intention, I think the temptation to float would be pretty high if he ended up with the opportunity, yet a check/call on the turn seems bad too.

So, what do you guys do with so little behind?

Thoughts on yesterday's hand

Thanks for the comments, glad I posted that hand because I had to get pointed towards thinking better about it, as unfortunately I didn't recognize myself that it was a pretty bad play.  Here's where I think my thinking just was bad...I didn't give enough thought to what the preflop raiser/flop c-bettor's range was.  Based on his stats, he's not going to be way out of line.  HU and he might bet a good part of his preflop range on that board.  But, with 3 people to act after him, two of whom will have position on future streets, he is not going to be c-betting light.  I don't really gain much from raising, and stand to lose a ton.  This doesn't even take into account what the guys behind *me* will do.  The best that I can hope for after my raise is that the original raiser decides to see what happens on the turn, but more than likely I'm in a bad spot if he can call my raise.

As to whether or not to fold when he reraises me, I still think it's a fold.  I mean, you guys are right that I should not raise/fold, but I think the raise itself was pretty bad, now that I'm looking back on it.  The only time I should be raising is when I've got a solid read that he's wild enough to go ahead and call it off (but even then I don't think a raise is the best play).  I think he's shoving here fairly tight:  sets, overpairs, broadway hearts.  If that's right, I've only got 22% equity.  If I add in some straight draws (that don't come with flush draws), I can approach 30%, but I think that may be a little optimistic.

Food is better when it's free?

We've got some customers in the office working on a project with us.  I'm not directly involved, but did get to grab some of their leftover pizza at the end of lunch.  It was pretty standard and only lukewarm having sat out for an hour or so, but it was free, and that made it taste better.

It's a little cold here, but there's no snow on the ground or anything like that, so if it doesn't rain, I still get to play tennis once a week or so.  It was pretty cool looking under the lights last night...all four of us had a ton of steam coming off us.  The bad part about playing in the cold is that you don't move quite as fast as you're used to...so my timing was pretty screwed up.

Today's "big" losing hand isn't all that big, but I only played a short session and it was the biggest loser.  Pretty sure it was fine, though.  MP seems pretty straightforward...19/17/3, somewhat low fold to 3-bet over a good sample.  Blinds were both pretty loose/passive.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $131.75
UTG: $68.05
MP: $100.00
Hero (CO): $121.95
BTN: $136.60
SB: $130.65

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ks Qs
1 fold, MP raises to $4, Hero calls $4, BTN calls $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($16.50) Qh 7s 9h (4 players)
BB checks, MP bets $11, Hero raises to $34, BTN folds, BB folds, MP raises to $96 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $84.50
MP wins $81.50
(Rake: $3.00)

I used to not really cold call too much with anything other than pocket pairs, but this one should be fine.  I can continue on a lot of flops, plus I'd love the blinds to come along with us.  More interesting question is what to do preflop if our hand is unsuited.  In that case, I might 3-bet and try more to take down dead money since I'm significantly less excited about a multiway pot, even with the same bad players.

Hello 2009

NYE was pretty fun and close to home so no long drive back.  Hope you all enjoyed your celebrations too.  Didn't really think the bowl games I watched were all that good, although to be fair I'm not watching nearly as much sports as I used to, so I didn't know too much about the teams beforehand.  Was glad to see that the Pac 10 kicked butt in their bowls, though :).

I'm poorer at the beginning of 2009 than I was at the beginning of 2008.  Outside of poker as well as in poker.  But this is about poker, and unfortunately, 2008 was a losing year, although in BB/100, it was positive.  In total $$ it was positive, too, thanks to bonii and rakeback. 

But as far as actual play goes, I followed the old do-well-at-lower-stakes-get-beat-at-higher-stakes game plan.  I think I'm a better player by quite a bit, though, and I know that should be more important in the bigger scheme.  I think I'm going to change my BR approach a little bit.  It will still be aggressive for someone playing full time, but since I'm not, I can afford to be a little more aggressive.  I'll wait a bit longer before playing higher, but when I do, it will be with more of a cushion.  My sense from playing is that with table selection, there is not a big difference in the quality of play between .5/1 and 1/2, so I think if I can continue winning decently at .5/1, I should be able to be at least marginal at 1/2.

Here's today's hand.  I think it's pretty basic, actually, but it was the biggest loser from the prior session with most of the money going in postflop, so that's how I'm randomizing my hands.

Over 600 hundred hands, villain 3-bet from the button pretty wide (I know it's a smallish sample, and don't think it matters a ton for the hand anyway).  He was about 30/15 as far as vpip/pfr goes, if that makes any difference.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $141.70
BB: $160.45
Hero (UTG): $134.10
MP: $62.55
CO: $92.40
BTN: $105.05

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Kd
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN raises to $14, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $31, BTN calls $17

Flop: ($63.50) 9c Jd 3d (2 players)
Hero bets $103.10 all in, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $74.05 all in

Turn: ($211.60) 7h (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($211.60) 2s (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $211.60
Hero shows Ad Kd (Ace King high)
BTN shows Qh Qc (a pair of Queens)
BTN wins $208.60
(Rake: $3.00)

Pretty sure this is neutral or a little +EV, given I don't plan to fold.  QQ is what I expect to get shown most often, but do you think that there are a significant number of other hands (compared to the number of QQ hands) he could have preflop?  Like 88-QQ, AQ+?  I thought if he could show up here with more PP's or AK sometimes and I can fold those on this board, it was a good play.  If he can only show up with JJ and QQ and he's going to play straightforward in reraised pot, then I suppose I could check, hope he checks, and see if I can hit on the turn (and fold if I miss).  But that doesn't seem right to me, because it does assume such a tight range for an unknown who has not proven anything, and that he would check behind the flop with that range anyway.